The Bulletin, Bend / Central Oregon News
FEBRUARY 09, 2010 04:39 AM
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Tim Oitzman, 42, of San Diego, chips his ball out of the sand trap and onto the 18th green while playing with friends at the Crosswater Golf course in June. Despite national economic concerns, the Travel Industry Association is predicting the tourism industry will remain strong through 2008.
Andy Tullis / The Bulletin
Economic concerns won’t deter travelers
COVA predicts increased room-tax revenue
By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin
Published: October 25. 2007 4:00AM PSTNational concerns about a housing slowdown and possible recession, coupled with higher costs of travel, won’t slow tourism in 2008, according to a Travel Industry Association forecast delivered Wednesday.
“There are many stresses in the U.S. economy, but the consumer is still interested in travel,” said Suzanne Cook, senior vice president of research for Washington, D.C.-based TIA. “We don’t expect the consumer to retrench or the economy to go into recession.”
Leisure travel, which has increased by 19 percent since 2000, will climb to 1.6 billion trips in 2008, a 1.5 percent increase over 2007, Cook said. Business travel, which peaked in 1997, is expected to be flat, she said.
Travel is a major part of Central Oregon’s economy, accounting for an estimated $498 million a year in economic impact.
The Central Oregon Visitors Association projects that the region could see 2 percent to 4 percent growth in room-tax revenue in 2008. But COVA’s president and CEO, Alana Audette, is concerned that a national recession could cut into those gains.
Nationwide, travel costs — including hotel, airfare and car rentals — increased this year and oil costs continued to soar, Cook said.
Annual U.S. travel spending is expected to reach $778.2 billion in 2008, a 5.2 percent increase from 2007, Cook said.
Next year, average daily room rates at hotels across the nation also are expected to increase by 5 percent to 6 percent, she said.
“Consumers will face higher prices, but at this point there’s not much evidence that it will negatively affect things,” Cook said. “Prices will increase within the range of consumers being able to pay for it.”
The forecast signals an increasingly competitive marketplace for Central Oregon’s tourism industry, which saw its best month ever in August, COVA’s Audette said.
More people are being cautious about their travel plans, waiting to book until they see how the national economy looks in 2008, she said.
“If people feel hesitant about their income, travel is the first place they step back from,” Audette said. “We have to be very careful and precise in our marketing efforts to target the people who will choose Central Oregon as their first choice in their travel destinations.”
The prospect of a slowing economy has shortened the booking window at Mt. Bachelor Village Resort near Bend, which has seen fewer advance reservations this year for 2008 than it did a year ago for 2007, said Diane Wilcox, general manager.
“Absolutely, we’re seeing more hesitation in booking,” Wilcox said. “It started in the summer when people were booking with a lot shorter notice. I attribute it to more availability of lodging in Bend. People know that they don’t have to book as far out as they used to.”
Wilcox projected “flat growth” for 2008 with shorter stays and less spending than in 2007.
Jeff McDonald can be reached at 383-0323 or at jmcdonald@bendbulletin.com.
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