The U.S. dollar’s small rebound over the last month won’t alter the course of the currency’s overall decline since 2005, and Central Oregon investors and businesses with international ties should continue to monitor the currency’s value, local and regional analysts say.

The analysts’ responses come as the U.S. Dollar Index reached 82.184 at the end of trading Friday, up 1.1 percent from the 52-week low of 81.251 earlier this month. The index hovered around 85 for most of January and was as high as 87.33 last summer.

”The overall trend is still downward,” said Dave Floyd, head trader and portfolio manager at Bend-based Aspen Trading Group, a foreign exchange market services firm. ”But the last couple of weeks have been encouraging. I don’t know if it’s the beginning of a new trend, but in the meantime, it’s an encouraging sign.”

The weakening dollar reflects the country’s trade deficit, where more foreign goods are being brought in versus less domestic products being sold globally. Economists have said in the past that it could erode the local economy through driving up commodity prices while putting downward pressure on the stock market.

But neither has happened recently, with commodities like copper dropping in price while the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record high Friday.

Bend-based financial adviser Bill Valentine said, however, that investors looking for the dollar to strengthen again may be disappointed.

”I don’t see it trending up at all,” Valentine said. ”There’s a slight uptick, but we’re talking about a small counter-move versus the last five years where the dollar has plummeted.”

The lower dollar isn’t necessarily a bad thing, said Lake Oswego-based independent analyst Bill Conerly.

”The best years for farmers tend to be during times when the dollar is down,” Conerly said, noting that a lower dollar means American goods like grain can be cheaper on the global market, which could encourage sales. ”And (Oregon) grows a lot of grains.”

He added that Oregon could theoretically see more foreign tourists looking to maximize their travel budgets but said that isn’t likely to have a major impact on the local economy.

”People planning for an extended vacation tend to do so well in advance,” Conerly said. ”And they also tend to be very specific in where they want to go.”

Bend-based Valentine noted that, on the reverse side, Central Oregonians looking to travel abroad should be ready to be shocked over how little the dollar is worth.

”It’s just heinous,” he said. ”People will be surprised how much they’ll be paying.”

Aspen’s Floyd added that investors with 401(k) plans should continue to keep an eye on the situation, as portfolios encompassing international funds have to be converted to U.S. dollars for payout. ”The way to deal with (a dropping dollar) is to really diversify,” he said. ”It’s not just about having different bonds and stocks. You should own multiple asset classes, including some foreign currencies.”

Lake Oswego’s Conerly added that businesses with international links could have their profit calculations complicated by the fluctuating dollar, and owners should consider hedging – or purchasing currency futures at current, locked-in prices – to take advantage of the dollar while it’s up slightly.

The full effects of the dollar’s overall decline may not be apparent until 2008, he said.