Count on coal this Christmas.

That’s what researchers at Morgan Stanley are saying in the first major forecast of a decidedly dour holiday season. Retailers hoping for a respite from a year of so-so shopping can instead expect the worst Thanksgiving-to-Christmas sales since 2008, the financial services firm said Thursday.

Five years ago, the industry was free-falling into recession. This year, a new collection of worrisome economic conditions looms as stores gear up for a period that can sometimes account for 40 percent of annual revenue.

Shopper confidence is low. The recent federal government stalemate and shutdown was a damper. The window for holiday shopping is six days shorter than it was last year.

At the same time, consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of economic activity, is actually getting a boost. Gasoline prices are lower, and net worth is rising because of higher real estate values and a stock market upswing, Morgan Stanley said in a report.

But instead of shoveling extra money into gifts, many Americans are plowing it into big-ticket items such as cars, appliances and home improvement goods.