A billion-dollar distressed sale?

Published 12:00 am Monday, May 26, 2014

Six weeks ago, no one would have suggested that the Los Angeles Clippers could sell for as much as $1 billion. The Lakers, yes. The Clippers, absolutely not.

Their octogenarian billionaire owner, Donald Sterling, took pride in rarely selling his assets and held on to the Clippers no matter how poorly he ran them.

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The last month has changed everything. His racist remarks earned him a lifetime ban and a $2.5 million fine from NBA Commissioner Adam Silver, who set in motion the process of forcing Sterling to sell the Clippers. But the legal fight by Sterling and his wife, Rochelle, to keep the team looks to be ending before it began. He has reportedly authorized her to negotiate a sale.

Whatever offer Sterling gets for his Clippers, here are some reasons it is likely to be exorbitant:

The Clippers are a vastly improved team with two extremely marketable stars, Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. Their upside seems great, especially with the Lakers exploring the deep downside.

Los Angeles is a huge market, the second largest in the country, one where the Dodgers were sold two years ago for a stunning $2.15 billion.

The Clippers’ local cable television deal with Fox’s Prime Ticket ends in 2016, which will probably set up a bidding war among Fox and the new regional sports networks that carry the Lakers (owned by Time Warner Cable) and the Dodgers (which the team owns).

The NBA’s national TV contracts with ESPN and TNT also end after the 2015-16 season, and there is almost no doubt the league will have a big leap in its rights fee.

The overall sales market for NBA franchises is serendipitously hot. Last month, the Milwaukee Bucks, one of the worst teams, sold for a league-record $550 million.

“When you see what the Bucks sold for, you ask, What does something in a huge market in L.A. go for?” said Irwin P. Raij, a partner at Foley & Lardner who specializes in sports transactions.

The signs have been pointing to NBA teams’ growing in value. In 2010, Mikhail D. Prokhorov paid a bargain price of $200 million for 80 percent of the Brooklyn Nets and 45 percent of Barclays Center, and the Charlotte Bobcats sold for $275 million, mostly in debt assumed by Michael Jordan. But that same year, the Golden State Warriors sold for $450 million.

Since then, the Detroit Pistons have sold for $325 million, the New Orleans Pelicans for $338 million, the Memphis Grizzlies for $377 million and the Sacramento Kings for $534 million.

If the two highest sales prices in league history are for the Bucks, who play in the 34th-largest market, and the Kings, who are in the No. 20 market, what are the Clippers worth?

“Will it be a billion, $800 million, $900 million or $1.1 billion? I don’t know,” Raij said. “But it will be significantly more than Forbes’ valuation.” The magazine’s estimate: $575 million.

Chris Bevilacqua, a sports media investor and adviser, said that one other factor in the value of the Clippers was the strength of the NBA.

“Any buyer is buying into the upward global trajectory of the NBA,” he said. “It’s a global brand that is accelerating, and all the owners own one-30th of it.”

That was not the case in any market, let alone Los Angeles, when Jerry Buss bought the Lakers in 1979 and Sterling bought the Clippers in 1981 (and moved them from San Diego in 1984).

Teams like the Lakers and the Clippers are “scarce assets” that are not often sold, said Robert Leib, a principal at Leib Advisors, a financial consultant to the sports and entertainment industries.

“Buying scarce assets like teams is like Steve Wynn’s purchase of very exclusive artwork,” he said, referring to the hotel magnate.

The fees that subscribers are being asked to pay to finance the huge outlays for Dodgers and Lakers local rights could tick still higher if the Clippers’ rights sell for an outlandish price.

It is sad, even grotesque, that the financial exercise of calculating the value of the Clippers and their media rights has arisen only after the broad public revelation of Sterling’s bigotry.

“A new owner with a broader vision of the world, like Magic or Oprah,” Raij said, “can change this in a positive way.”

For a billion dollars or so.

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