The tricky calculus of drafting Jameis Winston

Published 12:00 am Monday, February 2, 2015

TAMPA, Fla. — At a downtown park here on April 26, the Sexual Violence Task Force of Tampa Bay plans to host a “Take Back the Night” rally, a candlelight vigil and silent march to raise sexual assault awareness.

Four days later, and less than 5 miles away, executives sitting in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ gleaming office complex must decide whether to use the first pick of the NFL draft on Jameis Winston, the Florida State quarterback who was accused of raping a fellow student in 2012. Winston, 21, has asserted his innocence, did not face criminal charges and was recently cleared by Florida State of violating the university’s student code of conduct.

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The downtrodden Buccaneers need a quarterback, and Winston, a Heisman Trophy winner in 2013, is seen as one of the top two available along with 2014 Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota. But Winston’s checkered past — he was also involved in BB gun incidents, cited for shoplifting and suspended one game for shouting an obscene phrase on campus — has presented the team, and its fans, with a quandary that has divided and unsettled the Tampa Bay community.

In the wake of last year’s graphic video that showed former Baltimore Ravens running back Ray Rice punching his future wife and the firestorm the league’s initial, light punishment of Rice generated, the NFL announced that it was taking domestic violence and sexual assault matters more seriously. With the league’s general reputation in mind, however, it is unclear if the NFL has substantively changed any policies when it comes to vetting draft prospects in the aftermath of the Rice scandal.

The Buccaneers are not commenting on how they plan to use their first pick. A team spokesman said they were evaluating all the draft prospects and would not speak publicly about any specific player.

Representatives of the sexual violence task force, however, have visited with members of the Tampa Bay front office. Asked about the prospect of the Bucs selecting Winston, the task force’s chairwoman, Amanda Brennan, said in a statement: “The larger issue is that there have been many allegations against Jameis Winston, yet there is no question that Jameis Winston will be chosen by an NFL team to play next season. As an NFL player, he is a role model for boys and young men across the country. The Sexual Violence Task Force of Tampa Bay would like to know that Jameis Winston will be expected to adhere to a strict standard of conduct.”

Predicting how Winston will behave off the field as a highly paid pro football player has become the consuming focus of as many as 20 NFL teams, who have begun exhaustive examinations into Winston’s past.

“He’s brought the scrutiny on himself, and how he deals with the next three or four months will be a big part of every team’s evaluation.” said Mike Mayock, a former NFL player who is now a top draft analyst for the NFL Network.

Compiling a comprehensive report on Winston’s background will be crucial because several draft experts have predicted that Winston, despite his troubles, will be a top-five pick, or maybe even the first overall selection.

“He’s had off-the-field issues, but if he checks out and you can reconcile that all of that is behind him and not going to happen again,” ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr., a draft analyst, said, “then he goes No. 1.”

With all that at stake, teams will employ every resource at their disposal — scouts, coaches, executives, psychologists, orthopedists, private detectives, criminal investigators, security agents, cognitive test specialists and personality assessment clinicians — to gather information on Winston.

The NFL combine, a multiple-day skills audition, is in mid-February. Winston will train with a quarterback guru, but he will also be schooled for the dozens of interviews he will have with team executives.

“His agents will get him to a professional interview coach who will instruct him how to dress, act, sit and talk to the teams,” said Brian Billick, who won a Super Bowl as coach of the Baltimore Ravens and is now an NFL Network commentator. “He’ll learn some mantra about learning from his mistakes or how he has matured and is ready for the next step.”

Behind the scenes, Winston’s behavioral patterns, personality and temperament will be examined. Teams will ask Winston to take a Wonderlic test, a cognitive ability exam that dates to the 1930s. But without Winston’s approval or participation, the NFL, as well as individual teams, will scour through the minute details of Winston’s life.

“Everyone in the team’s organizational chart makes some calls to their counterparts around the country,” Mayock said. “The equipment guys might call the equipment guys at Florida State, and the public-relations guy calls around to the college sports information directors he knows who might have dealt with Winston.”

For many years, the New York Giants used a former insurance fraud investigator who was a licensed detective and had ties to local, regional and federal law enforcement officials. The investigator created a file of stories, interview transcripts, depositions and court cases about whatever prospect was being considered. He met with the Giants’ brain trust away from the team’s complex so the information could be shared with only select officials.

Separately, the NFL, which employs more than 70 independent investigators, does background checks on each of the 360 players invited to the combine and scours social media for clues to their character or to potential problems. The NFL also has a remittance policy in which teams must pay fines if too many of their players have off-field issues. The reports on the 360 players are hand-delivered to the 32 teams.

As investigations and evaluations of Winston are completed this spring, some teams may pass on Winston. But other teams will hope Winston falls from a first-round pick to a second- or third-round selection. It is a curious moral judgment.

“It is money, pure and simple,” Mayock said. “It is less of an economic risk in the third round because it costs less to sign that player.”

For the teams that still value Winston as a first-round pick, the decision is likely to be made at a team’s highest levels.

“Only an idiot would fail to recognize the heightened sense of concern about these kinds of offenses right now,” Billick said. “And for a change, you might see several owners get very active in the draft process for that reason — although it won’t prevent someone from taking Jameis Winston.”

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