The U.S. economy is the world’s largest and strongest and will drive the global economy for the next year, said economist Alan Beaulieu, keynote speaker Thursday at the Economic Development for Central Oregon annual luncheon.

Make the most of it, he said, because economic cycles dictate a mild recession in 2019.

Beaulieu is president of ITR Economics, a forecasting firm based in New Hampshire and founded by Beaulieu and his brother, Brian. Their predictions are accurate better than 90 percent of the time, Beaulieu said.

“If you’re a millennial and you’re here today, by the way, enjoy life while you can,” he said to a full house at The Riverhouse Convention Center in Bend. “There’s a Great Depression coming.”

Beaulieu predicted the U.S. economy will slow this year, due, in part, to low oil prices. Oil will remain around $50 a barrel through the next nine months but within a year will be closer to $85 a barrel, he said. The per-barrel price closed Thursday at $51.21 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

“The softness in oil in 2015 is going to slow down gas and oil extraction in the United States, which means there will be layoffs,” Beaulieu said, “which means there’ll be slowdowns in equipment orders, which means rigs will idled and … workers will be idled.”

Because oil and gas represents 9 percent of industrial production in the U.S., it will slow the entire economy, and layoffs will cause nervous businesses and consumers to scale back their spending, he said. Tourism, for example, a strong sector in Central Oregon, might take a hit, he said.

“And that’s the worst that’s going to happen to us,” Beaulieu said.

However, he counseled the audience of mostly businesspeople to make the most of a still-thriving economy.

“The world is giving you an opportunity. Grab it,” he said. “Borrow money, invest in yourself, invest in (Oregon State University) Cascades, invest in your community, invest in the idea that America is where people want to be.”

— Reporter: 541-617-7815, jditzler@bendbulletin.com