Six big questions in baseball with six weeks until spring training
Published 7:24 am Thursday, January 4, 2024
It seems like just yesterday that the Texas Rangers were raising the World Series trophy, that the greatest mystery of our time was the name of Shohei Ohtani’s dog and that the baseball world was marveling at the idea of a man who had yet to throw a pitch in the major leagues receiving $300 million.
But suddenly, 2023 is a thing of the past and 2024 is here, which means we’re closer to the start of a new MLB season than the end of the previous one. With just six weeks before pitchers and catchers report, plenty of offseason business remains unfinished and plenty of long-standing questions remain unanswered.
Here are six of those questions. The answers are to be determined.
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Where will the top remaining free agents land?
When the offseason began, Ohtani was the clear free agent prize, the best pitcher and hitter in his class, as no one has been or probably will be again. But in the less glamorous part of this group of free agents – the non-Ohtani division – 2023 National League Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and elite third baseman Matt Chapman looked best-in-class. A few days into 2024, neither has signed.
Clearly, many industry experts valued Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto more highly than Snell, given that an unprecedented bidding war between the sport’s coastal titans ensued for his services. Yamamoto received the largest contract ever given to a starting pitcher when the Los Angeles Dodgers committed $325 million to him before he ever threw a pitch in the majors.
But Snell is a lefty with a 3.20 career ERA who pitched to a 1.54 ERA and held opponents to a .157 batting average in the second half last year. Teams that missed out on Yamamoto, such as the San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, are desperately scouring a starting pitching market in which Snell, despite his propensity to walk batters and the stressful innings that facilitates, is almost certainly the best available option.
And Chapman, the steady defender who contributes plenty offensively, also remains available to teams (including some of those mentioned above) that entered the offseason hunting for the kind of free agent who can change a lineup on his own. Chapman and Snell are clients of agent Scott Boras, who never seems particularly hurried this time of year. But between now and spring training, those players – as well as Boras’s other former MVP free agent, Cody Bellinger – could change their future teams’ entire offseason.
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Are the Cubs really going to stand still?
One of the more dramatic developments of the offseason was the Chicago Cubs’ decision to oust manager and franchise hero David Ross and replace him with Craig Counsell for a record deal that seemed to signal the franchise was all-in on winning in 2024. But in the weeks since, the Cubs have done . . . well, very little.
Few teams have been rumored suitors of more players than the Cubs, who were reportedly chasing Ohtani and starter Tyler Glasnow, among others. But a few days into the new year, little about their roster has changed. They have not acquired any big-name starters, even as one of their steadiest hurlers from last year, Marcus Stroman, is exploring his free agent options. They have not added an impact bat to a lineup that could use one, even as a key piece of their 2023 lineup, Bellinger, is also a free agent.
The team that issued a record- and bank-breaking contract to a manager expected to help it win sooner than later has not added much of anything else. If the offseason ended today, something about that wouldn’t make much sense.
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Can the Giants change the narrative?
The San Francisco Giants were one of the premier franchises of the 2010s. They have a beautiful ballpark in a storied city. They have devoted fans and a track record of winning. And they were, in the way they conducted themselves, a credible big-market team that seemed to have a chance at any player they wanted.
But since Farhan Zaidi left the Dodgers to take over the Giants in 2018, they have been unable to coax big-name free agents to the Bay Area. The list of near misses has been long, ranging from Aaron Judge last year to Yamamoto this year. They pursued Ohtani. They tried to sign Carlos Correa. Other than convincing a few down-on-their-luck starters such as Kevin Gausman that they could rehabilitate their careers there, the Giants have not only whiffed on top talent but have not found ways to regenerate it themselves.
Many industry observers have floated theories about why this is. Particularly this offseason, some have suggested the city itself is not desirable for reasons that are not by any means exclusive to San Francisco and are often grounded in ignorance. Some wondered if position players were wary of former manager Gabe Kapler’s emphasis on matchups and platoons, which often resulted in even top hitters splitting time depending on the opponent’s starting pitcher. It doesn’t help that the Dodgers’ stunning ability to draw top talent makes their rivals’ struggles even more glaring.
This offseason, Zaidi made a splash by signing coveted South Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a $113 million deal. But the Giants could use more help, both in their rotation and in their lineup. Options, as outlined above, remain.
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Will the Orioles get the pitching they need?
For two offseasons, the Baltimore Orioles have needed starting pitching. The Orioles entered last winter with every reason to believe in their strong young core of position players, but they did not want to pay top dollar for starting pitching without knowing what they had. They entered this offseason with an American League East title to prove the theory that their young position players were enough – and with confirmation that a young rotation centered around Cy Young contender Kyle Bradish, rookie Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer was plenty talented.
But as they were swept out of the American League Division Series by the eventual world champion Rangers, they also received a clear signal that they do not have enough pitching to back this spectacular young lineup. Their general manager, Mike Elias, has been open about the need to add starters. But other than a bet on a bounce-back for former Kansas City Royals starter Jonathan Heasley, the Orioles have not tapped into their prospect depth to acquire anything resembling the top-line starter (or two) they need to advance.
Dylan Cease, Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber and other established starters could be available. For appearances’ sake after years of preaching financial patience, let alone the sake of their on-field fortunes in 2024, Baltimore can’t afford to enter next season without having acquired someone like one of them.
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Can Steve Cohen and the Mets really sit still?
When he directed his front office to dismantle the most expensive baseball team in history at last year’s trade deadline, Mets owner Steve Cohen indicated that his team needed a year or two to reset. He suggested then, and at subsequent news conferences to announce a new manager and general manager, that New York could not spend freely year after year forever without developing talent from within. He told stars he was trading away, such as Max Scherzer, that he didn’t expect the Mets to push hard for a title in 2024, so as to give the farm system time to reset.
So far this winter, David Stearns, his new president of baseball operations, seems to be operating accordingly. The Mets have reinforced their roster but not overhauled it, signing utility man Joey Wendle and betting on a return from oft-injured starter Luis Severino.
Then again, the Mets also reportedly made a huge push for Yamamoto, one the New York Post suggested included a dinner at Cohen’s home. To this point, Cohen has stuck to his plan of a fiscally conservative offseason approach. But as the rest of the industry knows well, Cohen can afford to change course – and change the course of the offseason if he does so.
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Are the Red Sox okay?
When the Red Sox fired chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom late last season, they did so because his tenure was largely defined by a lack of definition. Boston, seemingly in part because of the spending habits of owner John Henry, did not look like a team that was headed for something better, even as it was not exactly getting worse.
When the Red Sox hired former reliever Craig Breslow to replace Bloom, the hope was that he would make a splash, help the Red Sox climb back into contention for top free agents and establish a clear direction. But to this point, the signals remain mixed.
Yes, the Red Sox reportedly pursued Yamamoto. They were not the only big-market team to miss out there. But Breslow’s other moves have been as much about subtraction – of payroll, of personalities – as they have been about addition.
He traded sometimes-polarizing outfielder Alex Verdugo to the Yankees ahead of his free agent year, then acquired outfielder Tyler O’Neill from the St. Louis Cardinals, who had no place for him. He bet on Lucas Giolito, who struggled last season, with a deal that could pay the right-hander as much as $38.5 million over two years if he exercises a player option for 2025, which could yield an ace or could yield a bust. He then traded his only proven arm, Chris Sale, to the Atlanta Braves, seemingly in part to save money and obtained an unproven but potentially high-end future second baseman in Vaughn Grissom.
In Grissom, the Red Sox might have a piece of a future core Breslow and others hope will start to emerge this year. But they finished last in the AL East with a rotation that probably has gotten worse – or certainly no better. Snell and others remain on the market, and perhaps the Red Sox will pounce. But as of now, Boston’s direction is no clearer than it was a few months ago, and the AL East waits for no one.