Building permit trends don’t predict the future of Bend. They beat throwing bones or reading tarot cards. And in Bend, the permits tell a slightly different story than you may be used to.

Bend’s days of go-go growth aren’t over. There are signs of a shift. The city of Bend says its building permits look less like a boom – more like steady-state growth.

“City metrics support it,” said Roger Serad, senior budget and financial analyst assigned to the city’s community and economic development department. “Population growth is decelerating.”

Bend is still growing. It’s just not in the same way.

This discussion came up in a Bend Economic Development Advisory Board meeting on Monday. The focus was not on auguring Bend’s future. It was on permitting and how the city was trying to ready itself if there is a prolonged decline in permitting revenue.

A key driver of new development is what the city categorizes as “site plan new development.” It’s been generating about $1 million in fees for the last three fiscal years. The projection for fiscal year 2025 is it may only be half that.

Beyond permitting, there was a shift in year over year hotel occupancy in the summer for this year and last. Tourism in Bend dropped year over year with hotel occupancy down 8.9% and hotel average daily rates were also dropping for July and August, according to Visit Bend. It means fewer people visiting Bend and also millions less in revenue collected from fees for the city.

Staff at the city and with Visit Bend tried to put their fingers on some causes. Wildfire smoke in Central Oregon is obviously a factor in summer tourism. It changes plans for tourists.

For the permitting trends, it might be a reflection of the overall affordability of Bend. People may want to move here or move into a different home. They can’t afford it. Interest rates also have been souring buyers. Those two factors together may lead to less pressure for new development.

It would be foolish to make any long-term projections based on permitting data and hotel visitors. It looks, at least, like a shift. It may only be temporary.