U.S. Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer is sworn in as a member of the 118th Congress on Jan. 7, 2023. Oregon's 5th Congressional District, which stretches from Bend to Portland and is represented by Chavez-DeRemer, is one of the most competitive in the nation.

A freshman Republican representative from Oregon is one of the 20 members of Congress most vulnerable to defeat in 2024, according to a top national election forecast.

A freshman Democrat from the state is also facing a tough fight to hold on more than one term in office, the report says.

Though Oregon has only six of the 435 U.S. House seats in Congress, it has two of just 42 seats that are likely in play between Republicans and Democrats for who controls the chamber in 2024.

The analysis comes from The Cook Political Report, the oldest and still most influential of the national political forecasters.

U.S. Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, R-Happy Valley, is a toss-up to win a second term, according to the report. She flipped the 5th Congressional District that runs from Portland to Bend from Democratic to Republican. Her victory in November was a key to flipping control of the House from Democrats to Republicans.

The GOP now holds a slim 222-212 majority, giving the party control of the chamber for the first time in four years. The U.S. Senate has a 51-49 Democratic majority.

The Cook Political Report senior analyst David Wasserman wrote that just 42 of the 435 seats can be seen as seriously in play to shift from one party to another. His count means less than 10% of House seats going into 2024 are up for grabs. The count includes the 20 toss-ups, plus 22 more “leaning” toward one party or another but well within reach of the right opponent.

“That’s fewer than the 52 races we rated as competitive at the start of the 2020 cycle, but more than the 24 races we rated as competitive at the outset of the 2016 cycle,” Wasserman said.

Among the “leaning” group is the seat of freshman Rep. Andrea Salinas, D-Lake Oswego. While district demographics give Salinas a stronger chance at holding onto her seat than Chavez-DeRemer, she’ll need a strong, well-financed campaign to ensure she isn’t a one-termer in the newly drawn 6th District.

The other three current incumbent representatives — Democrats Suzanne Bonamici of Beaverton, Earl Blumenauer of Portland and Republican Cliff Bentz of Ontario — represent safe districts for their parties.

Until 2022, Oregon had returned a reliable election result every two years: four Democrats and one Republican would win the five congressional seats.

But the strategy unraveled by May. Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Springfield, opted to retire and though his 4th District was redrawn to be more friendly to a Democratic candidate, it became an open seat. Rep. Kurt Schrader, D-Canby, lost his bid for an 8th term in the Democratic primary. The new 6th District automatically had no incumbent.

Three new members of Congress were elected in Oregon in November.

In the 4th District, Democrat Val Hoyle won a comfortable 51% to 43% race against Republican Alek Skarlatos of Roseburg.

In the 6th, Salinas won 49.99% of the vote compared to 47.54% for Republican candidate Mike Erickson. Constitutional Party candidate Larry McFarland — whose platform draws voters to the right of most Republicans — won 2.3% of the vote. There were also 531 write-in votes.

In the 5th, Chavez-DeRemer won the seat for the Republicans by just over 6,300 votes out of 316,000 cast.

Wasserman said Chavez-DeRemer will have to show her staying power in a seat she flipped after facing a candidate in the general election who had defeated an incumbent U.S. House member in the primaries.

Chavez-DeRemer defeated progressive Terrebonne attorney Jaime McLeod-Skinner, who had knocked Schrader out of the primary.

Democrats argued over who “lost the 5th,” insurgent progressives who rejected Schrader in the primary or national Democrats who withheld key funds from McLeod-Skinner out of pique for her daring to run against a sitting congressman in the primary. In 2024, a flock of major Democrats is expected to line up to run in the 5th District. McLeod-Skinner’s supporters want her to run again, but she is also a finalist for the job of director of the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality.

Republicans point to Salinas winning just under 50% of the vote in the 6th District as a sign of possible vulnerability. A popular name being floated is 2022 GOP gubernatorial candidate Christine Drazan of Canby, who lost a close race to Gov. Tina Kotek.

Because of a quirk in the U.S. Constitution, candidates for Congress do not have to live in the district where they are running, just the state. Chavez-DeRemer, Salinas and McLeod-Skinner lived outside of their districts when they ran. The constitution does not require a member to live in the district once elected. Chavez-DeRemer has opted to remain in her home in a portion of Clackamas County just outside the 5th District.