MAUPIN Henry Hachler looks out from behind the formica counter at four Sunday afternoon customers lazing over BLTs. It’s July, when thousands of rafters and fishermen descend on the Lower Deschutes River and spend their dollars in places like Henry’s Deli Mart. Hachler’s not worried about the next three months, when he earns enough money to stay open until the summer tourists return. But next year they might not be back.

That’s because a boating permit system may be implemented in 2002 to cut river use 10 percent during peak summer months. That could remove 2,000 to 6,000 boaters during July and August from the section that runs through Maupin, devastating the town’s 411 citizens and rippling through Central Oregon’s economy, local officials and business owners say.

”It’ll probably be the end of this town,” said Hachler, born and raised in this valley hamlet perched above the river. ”If we get limited in any way, I’d say in about the first year, half the businesses would close. The school would suffer and close. Then you can forget it.”

Proponents of the cutback, which is designed to protect the river environment and prevent overcrowding between July 1 and Labor Day, say economic fears are being stoked by rafting and fishing outfitters trying to protect their bottom line. They also charge that local officials want to back out of a deal they helped design in 1997.

A permit system has been contentious since the idea surfaced in 1988 when federal, state, tribal and local officials looked at how to manage the Deschutes from the Pelton Dam to the Columbia River.

Those agencies endorsed the Lower Deschutes River Management Plan in 1993 but postponed a decision on how to limit use because the topic was too explosive, several participants in the negotiations said.

The prime movers behind the plan the Bureau of Land Management, the Oregon Parks and Recreation Department and the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs later drafted a supplement that would require permits for boaters, including rafters and kayakers, if use surpassed 1990 levels on any of four designated segments on the river.

After input from other agencies and local government, that supplement was endorsed in 1997 by all participating parties, including Maupin Mayor Sherry Holliday, who represented Jefferson, Sherman and Wasco counties at the table.

Holliday, however, said the three agencies strong-armed her into signing a bad deal.

”It was ‘Either sign it or we’re going ahead without you,’ ” Holliday said. ”Our vote didn’t count. I just think we were there because we squeak loud enough.”

Madras Mayor Rick Allen, who opposed the permit system when he worked on the original plan as a Jefferson County commissioner, said the government agencies postponed making a decision to weaken local opposition.

”It’s a wearing down effect,” Allen said. ”Sherry Holiday can be the whipping boy. Here’s a town of 400 people, and these are high rollers.”

Tribal, federal and state officials denied local leaders were sidelined in negotiations.

”Both the city of Maupin and Rick Allen played key roles and have now reversed their decision,” said Brian Cunninghame, river manager for the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs. ”I feel they have reneged on this issue.”

Wrangling over the permit system has intensified in recent weeks after initial boater-traffic numbers for 1999 and 2000 exceeded the set thresholds that trigger the permit system.

But even the BLM and Parks and Recreation Department question the accuracy of those numbers, which are derived from a complex formula that factors in where people entered the river, where they left, and how long they were on the water.

When the BLM took over compiling the figures in 1998, they compared numbers from their new software program with same-year numbers kept by Parks and Recreation Department computers. They found a major discrepancy.

The two agencies refused to release the numbers as they tried to reconcile the figures, triggering outrage from local officials and businesses who feared manipulation. The Madras City Council passed a resolution June 14 supporting requests by Maupin and the Oregon Guides and Packers Association, a group of wilderness outfitters, for ”factual information” on the number of users. Holliday also sought help from state Sens. Ted Ferrioli, Bev Clarno and Rep. Ben Westlund to get the numbers.

The two agencies have scheduled a July 20 meeting with tribal representatives to determine how to proceed. They may bring in an independent auditor or defer the permit system beyond 2002, agency officials said. A July 3 letter from Michael Carrier, director of the Parks and Recreation Department, said his office would provide Holliday with current data by Friday.

”What we’re doing is getting them the best information we have,” said Robert Towne, field office manager for the BLM. ”We’re not trying to hide anything. We’re not trying to cover anything up.”

That’s a tough sell for many rafting and fishing guides, who voluntarily cut their use levels to stave off a permit system.

”The Deschutes outfitters have no faith in the agencies,” said Dennis Oliphant, president of the Oregon Guides and Packers Association and owner of the Bend rafting outfitter Sun Country Tours. ”For years we’ve been told we’re doing a great job. Then in ’99 we started hearing the numbers are off the chart. Wait a minute. We’re down there every day it’s slow.”

Holliday said if the numbers can be verified, she would accept the permit system, which rafting and fishing guides say will doom them.

”The impact is going to be dramatic for my company and other companies,” said John Hazel, who runs a fly-fishing guide business in Maupin. ”Businesses are going to start failing.”

Guides and outfitters are particularly opposed to the first-come, first-served permit system required by the supplement. It allocates a certain amount of permits per day, which become available on a staggered basis ranging from one year to two days before their use date.

For guides, the problem is 70 percent of the permits are allocated a month or more in advance, reducing the chance permits will be available for tourists who don’t book that far ahead. It also means guides have to compete with the general public for permits after a two-year phase-in period.

”Forty-four percent of our guests contacted us three days prior to their launch,” Oliphant said. ”We can’t tell them whether we can get a permit until two days before launch. We’re going to have to say, ‘Well, check back with us.’ So how do we staff? How do we buy food?”

Guides said that after a few failed attempts to get permits, customers will simply go elsewhere, and the repercussions will extend beyond Maupin and Madras.

”The Deschutes is the lifeblood of this area,” Oliphant said. ”I have 70 full-time employees. These are people who are school teachers, bus drivers for the school district, bus drivers for Mount Bachelor. … We have a huge business with the catering company in town, the fuel that we buy, the auto repair places that keep our fleet of 15 vehicles going, and we’re just one business.”

Cunninghame, however, said it was unfair to give guides and outfitters preference in the permit process.

”This is a public resource,” he said.

”We don’t want to create a private property right out of that. We want them to do business in the same environment as everyone else in the country. This is capitalism.”