A ”sure thing” real estate investment, by Chris Cochran’s estimation, is one that is no risk, yields high returns and elicits ”no guilt for discovering it.”

Such investment opportunities may exist this year in Bend’s two hot spots: the Central Business District which encompasses downtown Bend and the west side, said Cochran, a partner and broker at The Mortgage Professionals of Central Oregon, Inc., and a guest speaker at the 2002 Real Estate Forecast Breakfast Thursday morning at The Riverhouse.

”West side” and ”downtown” were the buzz words in commercial real estate at this year’s breakfast. In residential real estate, trends show that housing prices in Bend are going up and homeowners are moving out to less expensive places such as Redmond where housing prices are $30,000 to $40,000 less, said guest speaker Don Bauhofer, founder and president of the Pennbrook Company.

In the past 10 years alone, the population in the county has increased by 49 percent. The consequences of such fast-paced growth are obvious, he said: In 2001, homes sold for an average $208,000; the median price was $169,000. House lots in the same year sold for an average $120,000; the median priced was $90,000.

”The affordability index is going through the floor,” Bauhofer said.

Dana Bratton, owner of the Bratton Appraisal Group, LLC, also a guest speaker, said downtown Bend and the west side have eluded the high number of vacancies found in other parts of the city.

There is about 350,000 square feet of vacant office space in Bend a 3.5-year supply, Bratton said. In a good year, Bend absorbs about 100,000 square feet.

His point: ”Don’t build office space for rent at this time,” he said, though building small speculative offices about 2,000 to 3,500 square feet in size to sell could prove to be profitable.

Another facet of the real estate market to keep an eye on, he said, is apartment complexes and duplexes.

Plenty of financing is available for such projects, and rental rates are on an upward trend, with monthly rent for two-bedroom apartments ranging from $650 to as much as $750.

Cochran, zeroing in on the explosive growth of health care in Bend, said there exists market potential for buildings on the west side that house administrative functions connected with St. Charles Medical Center, which is trying to free up space on its campus for medical services.

Immune to seasonal fluctuations in the number of tourists that descend on the area, as well as the waxing and waning of the stock markets, health care in Bend is migrating from east to west to serve a growing population there, he said. Brooks Resources Corp.’s Century Washington Center development, for example, has seen the number of health care practitioners in that area swell.

”Any other industry is luke warm compared to medical,” he said.

Promising development opportunities also exist downtown where there is room to grow not out, but up, Cochran said. Most buildings there are shorter than what the city allows up to 45 feet in height in that zone opening the door for additional office, retail or residential spaces to be built on top of existing buildings.