The Republican spin machine has finally met its match. Lobbying groups (charitably called ”think tanks”) funded by Republicans have labored overtime to create a smoke screen of doubt, questioning predictions of worsening global warming by most of the scientific community. But it’s hard to argue with two monstrous hurricanes spinning through the Gulf of Mexico in quick succession, both powered by high sea surface temperatures there. Global warming has come home to roost.

Generally, hurricanes depend on warm sea surface water temperatures to form and strengthen. Once they head over cooler waters, they lose strength. Conversely, when they enter an area such as the Gulf of Mexico, where warm water is effectively trapped, they usually strengthen. With global warming producing even higher water temperatures, it’s literally a recipe for disaster. That’s why predictions of strengthening in the Gulf were virtually no-brainers, for both hurricanes Katrina and Rita. National Weather Service meteorologists knew that Gulf surface water temperatures were at record levels, in advance of both storms. Katrina was the fifth-strongest Atlantic hurricane on record, in terms of barometric pressure at the center. Rita nearly broke that record, coming in third. Also, we’ve recently (March 2004) had the first-on-record south Atlantic hurricane, that made landfall in the Santa Catarina region of Brazil.

In a June 17 letter to the journal Science, Kevin Trenberth argues convincingly that hurricanes are likely to at least become increasingly intense (if not more numerous) due to global warming. Those with vested interests in fossil fuels want us to think otherwise, and fund lots of ”science” and public relations efforts aimed to convince us there’s no problem. But, as the huge and mounting impacts of Katrina and Rita show, the stakes are too high to ignore.

In the short run, we are faced with huge bills for rebuilding New Orleans and resurrecting the Gulf Coast economy, and with higher fuel prices. In the long run, we must ask how coastal cities everywhere will be affected by rising sea levels coupled with more intense storms. The insurance industry is already quite concerned about this prospect. And can U.S. taxpayers withstand a policy of routinely providing insurance of last resort for coastal destruction?

We must also ask ourselves how practical it is to rely on the Gulf of Mexico for so much of our domestic oil and gas production. Over 25 percent of our domestically produced oil and 20 percent of our natural gas come from the Gulf. With Rita following close on the heels of Katrina, one could reasonably ask if hurricanes may damage oil and gas production facilities there faster than we can repair them. Certainly, the risk of major investments in offshore production facilities there now looks less attractive. The higher risk premiums that result from such concerns will show up in our gasoline and heating fuel bills.

The energy lobby, working through its Republican allies, has thwarted effective policy to deal with the twin problems – global warming and insufficient oil to meet future world demand – for decades. When fuel was still very cheap, energy-producing states banded together to defeat increased vehicle efficiency through toughened CAFE standards.

Likewise, the lobby has successfully prevented national adoption of Renewable Portfolio Standards for utilities. RPS would require all utilities to furnish a significant fraction of electricity from renewable sources such as wind, geothermal and solar energy.

Until very recently, the energy industry’s answer to the prospect of shortages has been to jack up gasoline prices, even in places where there are no shortages. Their administration friends have even lied to the public and Congress about the likely duration of production recovery efforts in the Gulf of Mexico. ”Hey, don’t worry, everything will be fine again soon.” And OPEC says they have lots of extra oil. OPEC and the administration justify their actions by saying they are just trying to hold prices down to help everyone out. But their real agenda is the same one they’ve had for decades. They’d all rather we forego meaningful action on energy policy as long as possible, so they can maximize profits from their remaining reserves.

How many more disastrous hurricanes will it take? How high must gasoline, electric and home-heating costs go? When will we adopt an effective national energy policy, with strong support for renewable energy, energy efficiency and reduced greenhouse gas production? And when will we throw out the politicians who have obstructed these actions for so many years already?