Risk cuts at Morgan may lead to a loss

Published 5:00 am Thursday, July 2, 2009

NEW YORK — Late last year, after the financial crisis, Morgan Stanley made a decision that its biggest rivals avoided: Burned by the crisis, it would take far fewer risks in its trading.

That decision is costing it — at least for now.

Unlike Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, which quickly returned to profitability by taking on risk in trading for their customers, Morgan Stanley’s earnings from those operations will be less in the second quarter.

As a result, these profits will not be high enough to offset some unusual charges and expenses, and Morgan Stanley is expected to post a loss for the quarter, while its Wall Street rivals post robust quarterly profits.

Analysts say that Morgan Stanley’s expected second-quarter loss is not a cause of major concern, given the circumstances. But the contrast between its performance and others underscores how strategic decisions made during the financial crisis are playing out.

Morgan Stanley is expected to report a loss of at least $400 million, according to analysts’ estimates tracked by Thomson Reuters.

The reasons are a combination of lower trading profits than its rivals and higher charges. Those charges include $892 million the bank incurred when it joined its Wall Street brethren in repaying taxpayer support. Much more is likely to be caused by an accounting rule that requires banks to book losses on improvements in credit spreads, which act as an indication of investor confidence in the creditworthiness of a bank.

Now that the financial system is healing, Morgan Stanley and others must record losses as their credit spreads improve because they are deemed more likely to pay off all their debt. That charge at Morgan may be as high as $1.8 billion this quarter, according to Howard Chen, an analyst at Credit Suisse, who wrote in a report this week that Morgan has $4.1 billion in possible charges in future quarters related to its credit spreads alone.

Of the 10 large banks that returned the bailout money, Morgan is one of two that analysts expect to lose money in the quarter, according to Thomson Reuters.

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