The possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran alarms Arabs

Published 5:00 am Thursday, October 1, 2009

CAIRO As the West raises the pressure on Iran over its nuclear program, Arab governments, especially the small, oil-rich nations in the Persian Gulf, are growing increasingly anxious. But they are concerned not only with the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran but also with the more immediate threat that Iran will destabilize the region if the West presses too hard, according to diplomats, regional analysts and former government officials.

Today, Iran will meet with six world powers to discuss a variety of issues in what will be the first direct talks between Washington and Tehran since the 1979 Iranian revolution. Iran would appear to enter the discussions weakened by a bitter political dispute at home and by the recent revelation of a second, secret nuclear enrichment plant near Qom.

But instead of showing contrition, Iran test-fired missiles an example of the type of behavior that has caused apprehension among some of its Arab neighbors. The cause and effect of conflict between Iran and the West plays out here, in the Middle East, where Iran has committed allies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.

If the West puts pressure on Iran, regardless of the means of this pressure, additional pressure, increased pressure, do you think the Iranians will retaliate or stand idly by and wait for their fate to fall on their head? said Ambassador Hossam Zaki, a spokesman for Egypts Foreign Ministry. The most likely answer is they will retaliate. Where do you think they will retaliate?

Among Irans Persian Gulf neighbors there is growing resignation that Iran cannot be stopped from developing nuclear arms, though Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful uses. Some analysts have predicted that a regional arms race will begin. I think the Gulf states are well advised now to develop strategies on the assumption that Iran is about to become a nuclear power, said Abdul Khaleq Abdullah, a political science professor at United Arab Emirates University.

The head of a research center in Dubai said that it might even be better if the West or Israel staged a military strike on Iran, rather than letting it emerge as a nuclear power. That kind of talk from Arabs was nearly unheard of before the revelation of the second enrichment plant, and reflects growing alarm.

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