WASHINGTON — After Democrats racked up huge majorities in 2008 and Republicans were pushed to the margins of the U.S. House, U.S. Rep. Greg Walden was fond of quoting the political truism that “elections have consequences.”

Two years later, this fall’s congressional elections could have even bigger consequences for the clout of Walden, R-Hood River. As a member of both the House Republican leadership and an architect of its national campaign strategy, analysts say Walden will have more political influence and policymaking clout if the GOP regains control of the House this November.

Paul Unger, a Republican lobbyist and former staff director of the House Agriculture Committee, said the principle is simple.

“Horses that do work get fed first,” Unger said, crediting the line to former Illinois Secretary of State Paul Powell. “Greg will be in a very good position to have an important committee position.”

Walden, for his part, envisions using that influence to scrutinize President Barack Obama’s agenda and push forward his long-stalled forestry bills.

But he’s quick to say that his focus is on the election at hand.

“My counsel to my colleagues who are starting to nose around (about positions in the next Congress) is if you have time to do that, I probably have some candidates you could be helping,” Walden said.

Republican resurgence

Anything can happen to shift the electoral balance between now and Election Day, but as of this week most political handicappers are projecting that Republicans will pick up the 39 additional seats they’ll need to control the U.S. House next year. The U.S. Senate, where Democrats hold a 59-41 majority, is considered less likely to switch hands.

Nate Silver, a political forecaster for The New York Times, gave Republicans a 66 percent chance of retaking the U.S. House, in a prediction last week. Election watcher The Cook Political Report projects Republicans will win at least 40 House seats. The Rothenberg Political Report also said Republicans are favored to retake the House.

Not surprisingly, that’s a sentiment that Walden seconds.

“I think the sense is there are enough seats in play that Republicans will win the House and thereby provide a check and balance to the administration and the Senate,” Walden said in an interview last week.

As the second-in-command at the National Republican Congressional Committee, the campaign arm for House Republicans, Walden also stands to take some credit if the GOP posts big gains this fall, said Nathan Gonzalez, an analyst at The Rothenberg Political Report.

“I think the old quote is, ‘Victory will have many authors,’ so I think Walden is positioned to take some credit for the takeover,” Gonzalez said, “but there are going to be a whole lot of Republicans claiming victory on election night.”

Getting a gavel

For Walden, the most immediate reward from a GOP victory may be a gavel — chairmanship of a congressional subcommittee. That’s a prized commodity in a body where committees do most of the work and the committee chairs set the agenda.

Walden would almost certainly return to the Energy and Commerce Committee, where he was the top Republican on the Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee before stepping down in February to focus on campaign work. The committee is one of the most powerful in the House, with jurisdiction ranging from telecommunications to energy to health care.

If Republicans retake the House, Walden would be in line to chair the oversight subcommittee and hold hearings on nearly any subject he wanted. Walden said he’d likely keep a close eye on new health care, telecommunications and other regulations being written by the Obama administration.

“If I were fortunate enough to chair Oversight and Investigations, I think it will be one of the most active in the Congress because of its broad jurisdiction and because of these new laws that were passed and the need to perform legitimate oversight,” Walden said.

One less-likely possibility raised by Washington, D.C., newspaper The Hill is that Walden could jump over several colleagues with more seniority to chair the Energy and Commerce Committee. The Hill called Walden “a dark horse” for the spot, but he dismissed the idea.

“Underline ‘dark,’ ” Walden said. “I can’t imagine a scenario where you jump that many people to get a gavel.”

Walden also said he’s interested in joining the House Intelligence Committee.

Outside of committee work, Walden said Republican control would give him a better chance of advancing his forest bills, including proposals to speed up thinning of fire-prone forests and encourage use of forest biomass for energy. Even with support from a handful of moderate Democrats, Walden’s bills were largely ignored by Democratic leaders for the past four years.

“You couldn’t get hearings at all on any of our forestry legislation,” Walden said. “I guarantee you if (Rep. Doc Hastings, R-Wash.) is chair, we’ll be able to move forward on our forestry bills.”

What’s next?

All of these scenarios, of course, depend on Walden winning re-election to his seventh term in the U.S. House. He faces former small-business owner Joyce Segers, an Ashland Democrat who figures to be a long shot in a heavily Republican district and a Republican-leaning election cycle.

It’s harder to forecast how Walden’s jobs with the National Republican Congressional Committee and Republican leadership will shake out next year.

Gonzalez, of The Rothenberg Political Report, said the NRCC leadership depends on what current chairman Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Texas, decides to do.

“It’s going to depend a lot on how the top of the totem pole shakes out as far as where he ends up landing,” Gonzalez said.

Walden said he hopes to remain a part of the Republican leadership in the House, where he’s currently leadership chairman, thanks in part to his close relationship with Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio.

Unger said Walden is accumulating the influence to he’ll need to move up the ranks of his party.

“The thing you should do if you want a leadership position is exactly what Greg is doing,” Unger said, “which is work as hard as you can to get Republicans elected.”