Executive optimism

Published 4:00 am Sunday, January 30, 2011

Small-business CEOs in Bend who are members of Vistage International, a peer-mentoring program for CEOs and key executives, are feeling pretty good these days about their businesses and the broader economy. Their confidence parallels results of the fourth quarter Vistage CEO Confidence Index released earlier this month.

The index, which surveyed 1,729 CEOs in December, found more CEOs plan to hire and invest in their businesses, and expect higher revenues and profits.

That seemingly bodes well for a healthier economy going forward.

Vistage noted that the index, established in 2003, has been a leading indicator for changes in gross domestic product and employment two to three quarters later.

Asked about future prospects for the economy, 58 percent of CEOs last quarter said they expected improvement in 2011, according to a Vistage news release.

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“This was the most favorable outlook for economic growth since the start of 2004,” the release said.

Dan Hobin, CEO of G5 in Bend, is a two-year Vistage member who participated in the survey and is among those feeling bullish both about his company, which has added 60 employees since the end of 2009, and the broader economy.

“Our clients are feeling better across the country,” Hobin said. “And they are starting to look at spending more money.”

Specific findings in the survey include: 77 percent of CEOs expect increased revenues in their company this year, 63 percent foresee higher profits, 46 percent planned to increase their investments in new plants and equipment, and 54 percent expect to hire more employees, the first time in three years that a majority planned to add jobs, the release said.

While optimistic about profits, issues that companies believe will limit profitability include impacts from the new health care legislation and limits on credit. Higher profits will mainly come from better sales prospects in the improving economy, the release said.

Operating in a growing field, building and marketing customers’ websites, G5 did “pretty well during the whole recession,” Hobin said. “As things turn around, I think that we’re going to do even better.” G5 will continue to hire, but probably at a slower pace as it gets more efficient.

Hobin also expects more revenues and profits this year and says the company will invest in more software. Companies that spend on capital and tech can help pull the economy out of recession, he said. He expects to see significant hiring in tech this year as companies that leaned down during the recession ramp up to meet growth this year. He noted Google’s announcement last week that it plans to hire 6,200-plus people this year.

Kyle Buehner, CEO of Navis in Bend and five-plus year Vistage member who participated in the survey, says his confidence mirrors the index. He expects this year to beat the past two, “both for our own company and for the national economy as a whole.”

He also expects Navis to hire about 20 people this year, bringing it to nearly 100.

Deschutes Brewery’s Michael LaLonde, chief operating officer and chief financial officer, also sees growth continuing.

“I’m very optimistic,” said LaLonde, who joined Vistage early last year. “We’re in an industry that has had positive growth anyway,” he said. “Overall, the economy does seem to be turning.”

The company expects more revenue and income, is advertising for about five to seven employees locally and is planning to expand its brewing capacity in Bend. “The only thing that we worry about is when inflation will kick in and we’re already seeing some increases in steel prices,” he said. If steel for brewing tanks gets too expensive — the company will decide this quarter whether to expand this year — it could delay the project or consider buying or working with other brewing facilities. Additionally, Deschutes is moving forward with plans to expand its downtown brewpub on the vacant lot next door, opening it by early next year.

The local Vistage CEO group is chaired by Sunriver’s Bruce Juhola, who has 40-plus years of management experience in tech companies. He said all nine people in his group mirror the national survey.

Let’s hope the index keeps rising and higher GDP and employment are close behind.

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