Syrian currency stability fuels influx speculation

Published 5:00 am Thursday, August 18, 2011

BEIRUT — A sharp discrepancy between Syria’s nose-diving economy and its relatively stable currency is fueling speculation among observers that either another country — presumably strategic, oil-rich ally Iran — has injected huge amounts of cash into its economy, or Damascus is quickly draining its foreign-currency reserves.

Syria’s overall economy, stock market, vital tourism industry and foreign investment have collapsed, according to economists and analysts. It appears to have hemorrhaged cash, with the bulk flowing to Lebanon, which has long served as a conduit for Syrian finances.

But its currency, the Syrian pound, has held strong, staying about the same as before an uprising against President Bashar Assad began five months ago.

The disconnect between the teetering economy and the stable currencyhas baffled some observers and led to speculation about possible influxes of cash.

“You have the collapse of exports and the collapse of foreign direct investment,” said a Western diplomat in Beirut who closely tracks the Syrian economy and spoke on condition of anonymity. “Given the fact that the currency has not collapsed, the indications are that money is coming in. No one knows from where, or how much.”

Many economists and officials agree that, up until the uprising began, Syria’s prospects were relatively good, with many predicting a banner year for the country thanks to an uptick in tourism, investment from Iran and the Arabian Peninsula kingdoms, and increased trade with Turkey.

But the political crisis engulfing the country has changed all that.

Syria’s tiny Damascus stock market was down 41 percent during the first seven months of 2011, the worst performance in an Arab world convulsed by political unrest. Its gross domestic product, earlier projected to weather the global economic crisis and grow 3 percent, will instead probably shrink 5 percent or more. Tourism, which accounted for $4 billion annually, or 12 percent of its economy, has collapsed.

What’s more, a flood of cash appears to have poured from the country.

According to a report issued by the Byblos Bank, headquartered in Beirut, deposits in the Syrian accounts held by Lebanese banks dropped by up to 24 percent by the end of April. Meanwhile, despite a political crisis that crippled the government in Lebanon, banks here reported surges in deposits: from $670 million in February to $1.34 billion in March and $1.8 billion in April.

Syrian officials have taken steps to stem the outflow, including raising interest rates on savings, lowering rates on lending and adding transaction fees to dollar withdrawals.

The official news agency said Monday that Syria had barred anyone from exchanging more than $3,000 worth of local money for hard currency without special permission in order to “put an end to manipulation in the currency market and speculation.”

Syria may have also begun drawing on extensive reserves that officials claimed had reached $17 billion, built up over the decades to keep the currency solid and the merchant class supportive — or at least quiet about the crackdown against the protest movement.

Other factors could be helping maintain the Syrian currency’s stable rate. Remittances from abroad, which total about $1.2 billion a year, could have gone up as wealthy Syrians send cash home. Also, security forces could be forcing black market vendors to keep prices steady.

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