Charging ahead
Published 4:00 am Friday, February 24, 2012
It has been a rotten few months for electric cars. Less than a year ago, EVs and plug-in hybrids seemed ready for a mass takeoff, with the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt leading the charge down the runway.
But early sales have been disappointing, causing some analysts to express caution. Are plug-in cars establishing a foothold? Or might they be done in by familiar factors: high prices, short range, long charging times, plentiful gasoline and consumer resistance?
In December, J.P. Morgan sharply downgraded its electric-adoption forecast, projecting that plug-in models would take just 4.5 percent of the global market by 2025, down from the previous estimate of 8.6 percent.
The Volt’s reputation was dinged by a federal investigation into the potential for battery fires. That inquiry concluded that the plug-in hybrid was no more fire-prone than a gas-powered car.
And in this election year, Republicans have assailed electric cars, making them a stand-in for President Barack Obama’s stimulus spending, energy policies, auto-industry aid and loans for plug-in makers including Ford, General Motors and Nissan.
House Republicans accused safety officials of trying to whitewash a Volt battery fire — which occurred weeks after the car was crash-tested — to protect the government’s investment in GM.
Fisker laid off 66 workers after missing sales targets for its Karma plug-in that were conditions of its $529 million Energy Department loan.
But none of the bad news is stopping automakers, from big, bullish Nissan to tiny underdogs like Coda, from sticking electric motors into cars.
Americans bought 19,874 plug-in cars in 2011, according to LMC Automotive. But the research firm expects the number to surge to roughly 70,000 this year, to nearly 170,000 in 2013 and to a healthy 250,000 by 2015.
About a dozen new plug-in models are scheduled to reach showrooms this year, and another dozen in 2013. Most new models adopt a standardized plug that delivers stronger 240-volt current, filling the batteries in three to eight hours.
Whether or not plug-ins become common, some intriguing vehicles will arrive in the next two years. Here are some models to keep an eye on:
• Amp: This Ohio company plans to yank the powertrains from Jeep Grand Cherokees and Mercedes M-Class SUVs and replace them with batteries and electric motors, good for a 100-mile range. Set for this fall, Amp’s Jeep and Mercedes EVs start around $58,000 and $80,000 respectively.
• Audi: An electrified version of the R8 sports car, featured in the “Iron Man” movies, the E-tron is to go into production late this year and will have four electric motors, one at each wheel. With power from a big 53-kilowatt-hour battery, a prototype developed 313 horsepower and 502 pound-feet of torque. Expect a price well into six figures.
• BMW: The ActiveE, an all-electric version of the 1 Series coupe that is being leased to 700 American customers, is serving as a testbed for BMW’s first full-production electric car, the i3.
A city car with a body of lightweight carbon fiber, the i3 is to reach dealerships in late 2013 and early 2014. It will first be offered as a pure EV, with a plug-in hybrid version to follow. Then, in 2014, BMW will offer Hollywood celebrity bait with the futuristic i8 plug-in hybrid, which has already had a supporting role in “Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol.”
• Cadillac: To arrive next winter, the eye-catching front-drive ELR adopts the hybrid approach of the Volt, covering short distances on battery power, then switching to a gas engine to generate electricity and extend the range.
• Coda: This Los Angeles-based underdog plans an international approach: importing partly built Hafai Saibo sedans from China, then installing batteries and electronics in Northern California. For prices of $38,145 or $40,795, buyers will get a car with a range of 125 or 150 miles. Coda hopes to roll out its first cars in California in the spring.
• Fiat: Sergio Marchionne, chief executive of Fiat and Chrysler, complained last year that Fiat would lose $10,000 on every EV it sold. Still, Chrysler is engineering the Fiat 500 EV for limited production this year, at a price that may approach $40,000.
• Fisker: After long delays, the $103,000 Karma plug-in hybrid is slowly reaching customers from the factory in Finland where it is assembled. The California startup says its voluptuous sedan can cover 300 miles, the first 50 on battery power. The Karma can reach 60 mph in less than six seconds, with a boost from a GM-sourced four-cylinder gas engine.
• Ford: Three plug-in cars are coming from Dearborn, Mich., this year. The Focus Electric goes on sale next month in California, New York and New Jersey, with distribution spreading to 15 additional markets by year-end. The car’s trump card is a powerful 6.6-kilowatt onboard charger, giving the 123-horsepower Ford a full charge in four hours, about half the time of the current Nissan Leaf. But the $39,995 base price is $4,000 more than the Nissan’s, which has a similar 100-mile range.
The Ford C-Max people mover will be offered as both a conventional hybrid and, this fall, as a plug-in version called the Energi. A 2-liter gas engine and electric motor supply 185 horsepower, with recharging in as little as 3.5 hours. Ford says the C-Max Energi will beat the Volt’s gasoline equivalent rating of 93 mpge and have a total driving range of 500 miles.
Finally, Ford plans to sell an Energi plug-in hybrid version of its 2013 Fusion alongside the gasoline and hybrid models, starting next winter.
• Honda: An electric version of the Fit hatchback arrives this summer, although just 1,100 will be available, strictly on the West and East coasts, with a $399 monthly lease. The Fit adopts the 123-horse electric motor from the FCX Clarity hydrogen fuel-cell car; a 20-kilowatt-hour battery will provide roughly 75 miles of range.
And in fall 2013, Honda will offer an advanced plug-in hybrid system on its next-generation Accord. A 2-liter Atkinson cycle engine will join two electric motors, one to charge the battery and one to propel the car. The plug-in Accord is said to be capable of traveling 10 to 15 miles on electricity at up to 62 mph, or to blend gas and electric power.
• Infiniti: To be unveiled at the Geneva auto show next month, Infiniti’s two-seat, rear-drive sports car will combine electric power with a midmounted 1.3-liter gas engine. The car adopts the Chevy Volt’s extended-range format rather than the all-electric approach championed by Nissan.
• Mercedes-Benz: Like other electric supercars, the SLS AMG E-Cell could pluck the consciences and wallets of the rich when it comes to market with a projected price of $200,000. The E-Cell would crank out 526 horsepower through four 12,000-rpm electric motors; its projected top speed of 155 mph could set a production EV record.
• Mitsubishi: Mitsubishi’s tiny four-seat “i” city car is the EPA’s new fuel-economy champ, rated at the gasoline equivalent of 126 mpg on the highway and 99 in town. It is also, at about $30,000, the most affordable highway-capable electric car. With 63 horsepower, the “i” is slow and somewhat crude, with a range of 62 miles. On sale now in the West, the car migrates to the Northeast in April.
• Porsche: A jaw-dropper for its design and its $845,000 price, the 918 Spyder Hybrid promises a top speed of 198 mph, fuel economy exceeding 70 mpg and lower carbon emissions than a Prius. Between its race-bred V-8 and electric motors, the plug-in Porsche kicks out roughly 730 horsepower and can go up to 25 miles on electricity. The showroom version will be unveiled in Frankfurt in 2013.
• Tesla: Tesla is seeking to justify its federal loans with the Model S, a striking electric sport sedan that claims unmatched range of 160 to 300 miles, depending on the battery. Tesla offers 40-, 60- and 85-kilowatt-hour versions from $57,400 to $105,400. The power-packed version offers an unlimited battery warranty and 0-to-60 mph acceleration of 4.4 seconds. Deliveries are to start later this year.
• Toyota: For $32,760 to start, the new Prius plug-in hybrid can travel just 15 miles on battery juice alone — one-third the Volt’s range — but it can top 50 mpg when its gas engine comes into play, beating the Chevy. A similar version of the Prius V wagon arrives this fall. Toyota will also start production in Ontario late this year of the RAV4 EV, whose electric powertrain was developed by Tesla at a cost to Toyota of $100 million.