Breaking down Tigers vs. Giants

Published 5:00 am Wednesday, October 24, 2012

San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Matt Cain

A look at the best-of-seven World Series between the Detroit Tigers and San Francisco Giants:

Schedule

• All times PDT; x-if necessary; all games on Fox

Game 1: Today, 5 p.m.

Detroit (RHP Justin Verlander 17-8, 2.64 ERA) at San Francisco (LHP Barry Zito 15-8, 4.15)

Game 2: Thursday, 5 p.m.

Detroit (RHP Doug Fister 10-10, 3.45) at San Francisco (Madison Bumgarner 16-11, 3.37)

Game 3: Saturday, 5 p.m.

San Francisco (RHP Ryan Vogelsong 14-9, 3.37) at Detroit (RHP Anibal Sanchez 4-6, 3.74)

Game 4: Sunday, 5 p.m.

San Francisco (RHP Matt Cain 16-5, 2.79) at Detroit (RHP Max Scherzer 16-7, 3.74)

x-Game 5.: Monday, 5 p.m.

San Francisco at Detroit

x-Game 6.: Oct. 31, 5 p.m.

Detroit at San Francisco

x-Game 7.: Nov. 1, 5 p.m.

Detroit at San Francisco

Projected lineups

Tigers: CF Austin Jackson (.300, 16 HRs, 66 RBIs, 10 triples), RF Andy Dirks (.322, 8, 35) or Quintin Berry (.258, 2, 29, 21/21 SBs), 3B Miguel Cabrera (.330, 44, 139 for baseball’s first Triple Crown since 1967), 1B Prince Fielder (.313, 30, 108), LF Delmon Young (.267, 18, 74), SS Jhonny Peralta (.239, 13, 63), C Alex Avila (.243, 9, 48), 2B Omar Infante (.274, 12, 53 with Marlins and Tigers).

Giants: CF Angel Pagan (.288, 8, 56, 29 SBs, 15 3Bs), 2B Marco Scutaro (.306, 7, 74 for Rockies and Giants), 3B Pablo Sandoval (.283, 12, 63), C Buster Posey (.336, 24, 103, 39 2Bs), RF Hunter Pence (.253, 24, 104 for Giants and Phillies), 1B Brandon Belt (.275, 7, 56), LF Gregor Blanco (.244, 5, 34, 26 SBs), SS Brandon Crawford (.248, 4, 45).

Relievers

Tigers: RH Jose Valverde (3-4, 3.78, 35/40 saves), LH Phil Coke (2-3, 4.00), RH Joaquin Benoit (5-3, 3.68, 84 Ks, 71 IP), RH Octavio Dotel (5-3, 3.57), RH Al Alburquerque (0-0, 0.68 in 8 games following elbow surgery), LH Drew Smyly (4-3, 3.99 in 23 games, 18 starts), RH Rick Porcello (10-12, 4.59 in 31 starts).

Giants: RH Sergio Romo (4-2, 1.79, 14/15 saves, .185 BA against), LH Javier Lopez (3-0, 2.50, 7 saves, .191 BA vs. LH), RH Santiago Casilla (7-6, 2.84, 25/31 saves), LH Jeremy Affeldt (1-2, 2.70, 3 saves), LH Jose Mijares (3-2, 2.56 in 78 games with Royals and Giants), RH George Kontos (2-1, 2.47), RH Guillermo Mota (0-1, 5.23).

Big picture

Tigers: It wasn’t as easy as many expected, but Detroit (88-74) wrested the AL Central title from the fading Chicago White Sox and beat Oakland in the division series to reach the ALCS for the second year in a row. Riding a dominant display of pitching, the surging Tigers then handed the Yankees their first postseason sweep in 32 years and became the first team to beat New York in three consecutive postseason series. Detroit allowed only six runs during the ALCS and held the Yankees scoreless in all but three of 39 innings to claim its 11th pennant. Tigers starters went 4-1 with a 1.02 ERA during the AL playoffs.

Giants: After pulling away from the rival Dodgers to win the NL West, the Giants (94-68) dropped their first two playoff games at home to Cincinnati. But they were far from done. San Francisco became the ninth team to overcome a 2-0 deficit in a best-of-five postseason series and the first to do it by winning the final three games on the road. Then the Giants fell behind defending champion St. Louis 3-1 in the NLCS, only to rally for three consecutive lopsided wins and their second pennant in three years. They are 6-0 in elimination games this postseason.

Tigers offense

Why they’re better: The heart of the Tigers lineup — Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera, and sluggers Prince Fielder and Delmon Young — is more potent and, for the most part, hitting well during the playoffs. Cabrera will be pitched to with care, so the offensive production will rest on Fielder and Young behind him in the lineup. (They have combined to drive in 11 runs so far.) Outfielders Avisail Garcia, Andy Dirks and Quintin Berry have made solid contributions at the plate. Austin Jackson, a standout defender in center, shortstop Jhonny Peralta and second baseman Omar Infante are all hitting .280 or better in the postseason.

Why they’re not: For a lineup of mostly right-handed bats, the Tigers were susceptible to left-handed pitching during the regular season. Playing in San Francisco could hurt the Tigers, forcing them to sacrifice defense for offense in playing Young in left field. The Tigers sluggers have enough power to overcome the expanses of AT&T Park but expect fewer home runs from them. Their lack of speed could also hurt them there, too: only 59 stolen bases (second lowest total in the majors during the regular season) and a major league-leading 156 grounded into double plays.

Giants offense

Why they’re better: While the Los Angeles Dodgers took a ton of salary via trades in the second half, general manager Brian Sabean dealt for Hunter Pence and Marco Scutaro. And now, no acquisition in baseball seems more impactful than the addition of Scutaro from the Rockies in July. Sore hip and all, the second baseman is on a near-unstoppable tear, tying an NLCS record with 14 hits. The Giants’ No. 2 hitter and No. 3 hitter Pablo Sandoval have been a force: combined 33 for 98 (.337) in the postseason.

Why they’re not: Despite a second-half surge, the Giants’ offense has been prone to streaks in the postseason. In their seven wins, they have plated 43 runs but only 10 in five losses. The slumps of their middle-of-the-order hitters is troubling: No. 4 hitter Buster Posey and No. 5 hitter Pence are a combined two for 22 with runners in scoring position. Because of their home ballpark, the Giants are masters of the double and triple, but finished last in the majors in home runs during the regular season.e_SClBTigers pitching

Why they’re better: Led by otherworldly Justin Verlander, the Tigers’ starting rotation has been the best in the postseason with a 1.02 ERA. The long layoff between games has allowed them to rest and reshuffle their starters so that Verlander starts Game 1. Verlander won all three of his postseason starts, allowing only two runs and striking out 25 in 241⁄3 innings. Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez and Matt Scherzer each have allowed only two runs in the playoffs and form the most dangerous and consistent rotation.

Why they’re not: Closer Jose Valverde had a good season but not as dominant as last year, and in the playoffs he has been an utter mess. He has allowed seven earned runs in 2 1⁄3 innings, pitching only once in the ALCS and blowing a four-run lead against the Yankees in Game 1. During his 11-day layoff, Valverde said he discovered a mechanical flaw in his delivery and has fixed it. Left-hander Phil Coke has filled in well as a closer. The bullpen is well-rested thanks to the heavy workload carried by the starters, and performed adequately. They lack a shutdown left-handed specialist.

Giants pitching

Why they’re better: The Giants’ veteran starting pitching handled the pressure of elimination well, and performed their best in those situations. In those six games, the starters posted a 1.87 ERA over 33 2⁄3 innings. Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelsong, Barry Zito and even Tim Lincecum pitched better in the NLCS against the Cardinals than the previous series against the Reds. When the starters struggled, the bullpen was sharp and has a better blend of veteran left-handers (Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez) and right-handers (Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla).

Why they’re not: The starting pitching had dueling identities in the playoffs: Plagued by inconsistency early in both series and then lockdown performances in win-or-go-home games. The pressure of six elimination games can hone a player’s focus — but those high-leverage, maximum effort innings can add up. The downside of playing a seven-game series is that the Giants won’t be able to start Cain in Game 1, and will have to wait until Game 4. Lincecum, improved in the playoffs, is still a wild card given his regular season.

Tigers manager

Why they’re better: Jim Leyland is an old-school, straight shooter who trusts and relies on his players. He won a World Series with the Florida Marlins in 1997 and won the AL pennant with the Tigers in 2006. Could this be Leyland’s last year? He is under contract for this season and general manager Dave Dombrowski wants him back, but the 67-year-old manager put off contract talks, fueling speculation that he could retire like friend Tony La Russa did last year after winning the World Series.

Why they’re not: To start, Leyland may have to contend with rust. The Tigers will have gone five days in between games. In 2006, the Tigers had a week off before the World Series, only working out, and lost to the Cardinals in five games. This time, the Tigers have played simulated games against some of their minor league prospects. Even though the Tigers have gotten this far, it’s hard not to remember what plagued them when they underperformed much of the season with a big payroll and big-name players.

Giants manager

Why they’re better: Bruce Bochy, like Leyland, doesn’t lack for experience and managing acumen. He has shown a deft touch in handling his pitching staff, pulling veteran starters quickly when they struggle and lining up the bullpen. He guided the Giants to a World Series in 2010, leaving Zito off the roster. Bochy overcame changes to the back end of his bullpen, Lincecum’s terrible season, Zito’s re-emergence, the suspension of Melky Cabrera and rotating Posey between first base and catcher in his first year back from a season-ending injury.

Why they’re not: While he has shown the ability to juggle his starters and relievers, Bochy faces tough choices in lining up starts thanks to a taxing seven-game series against the Cardinals. Some starters will return on short rest, and his trust in them will again be tested if they show any signs of struggling, and as a result putting more strain on the bullpen. He could be staring down important decisions early in the game because of an inconsistent starting rotation, and all decisions are second- and triple-guessed in the playoffs.

Three reasons the Tigers will win

• They’re rested. That means their rotation — and it’s a heck of a rotation — should be in top form. That might be enough right there.

• Third baseman Miguel Cabrera. He’s the Triple Crown winner, and it’s just a matter of time before he really breaks loose. He showed signs of warming up against the Yankees.

• Law of averages. The Giants survived three elimination games against the Reds and three more against the Cardinals. If the Tigers get ahead in the Series — and they have Verlander scheduled for two of the first five games — well, we’ll see.

Three reasons the Giants will win

• Tigers are stale. Sure, rest is a good thing, but the Tigers learned in 2006 that a quick knockout in the championship series can prove counter-productive. And if the Giants beat Verlander in the opener (or survive long enough to get into the Tigers’ bullpen), the Series math changes significantly.

• Catcher Buster Posey. He’s a good bet to be selected as the National League’s Most Valuable Player — and he’s eight for 45 in 12 postseason games. Progression to the mean seems in order.

• Spunk. Or whatever you want to call it. The Giants are just the second team in history to win six elimination games in one postseason. (You know the other one; they also crushed the Cardinals in a seventh game.)e_SClB— From wire reports; photos by The Associated Press

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