WASHINGTON — In an election year full of uncertainty, one thing seems fairly sure: Republicans will retain firm control of the House of Representatives.

Democratic dreams of carving into the 240-190 majority that Republicans enjoy are meeting the harsh reality of many Republican-held seats being secure because of redistricting and a potential lack of congressional coattails from President Barack Obama, several election experts say.

Democrats could pick up anywhere from zero to five seats, some handicappers predict, well below the 25 needed to take control of the House, and less than the five-to-10-seat pickup some Democrats and political observers were projecting earlier in the campaign season.

Meanwhile, Democrats appear poised to retain control of the Senate, but this year’s forecasts are full of more uncertainty than usual.

A host of unknowns could affect the 10 or so races too close to call: Turnout. Ground game. Last-minute ads. Presidential coattails. Weather.

Democrats now control 53 of the Senate’s 100 seats. Twenty-three of those Democratic seats are up for re-election, compared with just 10 in Republican hands. Republicans need a net gain of four seats for their first majority in six years, three if Mitt Romney wins, allowing a Vice President Paul Ryan to cast tie-breaking votes.

Independent experts agree Republicans could wind up with anywhere from a net gain of three seats to zero. They also warn it’s an unusually difficult year to figure, because the 2012 vote is not shaping up to be the kind of national referendum on an issue such as the Iraq war, or the economy, that gives one political party an advantage.

“Neither party has the wind at its back,” said Jennifer Duffy, Senate analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “It’s all about candidates and their campaigns.”

Balance of power in Congress

SENATE

Democrats appear poised to retain control of the Senate, but this year’s forecasts are full of more uncertainty than usual.

A host of unknowns could affect the 10 or so races too close to call: Turnout. Ground game. Last-minute ads. Presidential coattails. Weather.

Democrats now control 53 of the Senate’s 100 seats. Twenty-three of those Democratic seats are up for re-election, compared with just 10 in Republican hands. Republicans need a net gain of four seats for their first majority in six years, three if Mitt Romney wins, allowing a Vice President Paul Ryan to cast tie-breaking votes.

Independent experts agree Republicans could wind up with anywhere from a net gain of three seats to zero. They also warn it’s an unusually difficult year to figure, because the 2012 vote is not shaping up to be the kind of national referendum on an issue such as the economy, that gives one political party an advantage.

HOUSE

In an election year full of uncertainty, one thing seems fairly sure: Republicans will retain firm control of the House of Representatives.

Democratic Party dreams of carving into the 240-190 majority that Republicans enjoy are meeting the harsh reality of many Republican-held seats being secure because of redistricting and a potential lack of congressional coattails from President Barack Obama, several election experts say.

Democrats could pick up anywhere from zero to five seats, some handicappers predict, well below the 25 needed to take control of the House.

Source: McClatchy Newspapers