Couple unpacking dishes in new apartment

We read almost daily about the shortage of rentals in Bend and it’s really true. We have a housing shortage that will not be going away anytime soon. It’s best to understand it and move forward with plans, ideas and ways to work with what we have and promote more housing within any type of future development we have coming our way.

Yes Virginia, it is lack of supply. People can point fingers all day long to blame greedy developers or to the “rich” people moving here from other areas ruining our town. Some people point and scream at short-term rentals running amok and ruining our city. Get ready for some serious growth challenges and city-wide changes that are here right now. That big red arrow on the map? We Are Here. All of the growth our city government and local business strive for in order to have a robust economy includes people moving here. Where are they going to live?

Briefly, each city in Oregon is required to provide a 20-year supply of land for all land-uses – not just for housing, but for commercial, industrial use and the like. We are into the 8th (?) year with our fingers crossed the State will approve the Plan re-submitted in 2016. Based on our own UGB Remand Project we need a total of 17,000+ housing units by 2028. Comparing two scenarios that seem to have made the cut these city-wide projections still reflect a shortage of 2,500 – 4,500 units. Even these most optimistic projections do not solve the problem. Why is that OK?

Affordable housing and government-assistance rentals require tenants to meet state and federal income requirements, yet median incomes have fallen annually since 2012. Lower incomes require lower requirements for assistance because the percentage stays the same. Increased housing costs (lack of supply) exacerbate the problem immensely. The median income in Deschutes County has dropped 11 percent since 2012. Because percentages tend to not say much the real number here is $7,700, or $641.66 per month. That makes a huge difference in affording rent if you have $640 less per month to pay for housing. Could you do it?

We have a four-year university coming our way with the estimation of providing housing for 3,400 of its 5,000 students. Does staff need housing as well? I’m just thinking out-loud. Creating space and livability for this project is going to carry the most weight in changes of how our city grows. I credit a Student Housing Memo from March 16, 2015 for the following tidbits of information: Bill Bernardy, Chair of the OSU-Cascade Housing Task Force submitted some of the following suggestions for recommendations and findings to the City Council, Central Westside Taskforce and Bend Planning Commission. They have projected housing needs for 3,400 out-of-town students in a city with a near-zero rental vacancy rate. It went from 5,000 to 3,400 because the difference are students who live here already.

Based on this memo, it is projected that OSU plans on providing 300 beds in 2016; by 2020 it is suggested they house an additional 1,000 students on campus in working with private developers to create housing within a half a mile of the campus. By 2025 it is suggested they house an additional 800 students on campus and provide another 1,325 upper-classmen in university-affiliated student housing within this same half mile of the campus. Zoning changes, new city policies (weekend enforcement of parking on approved surfaces only), OSU-Cascades expanded partnerships with the community will all come into play in how Bend can absorb this additional population surge by 2025. This memo states that there will be few impacts on existing westside neighborhoods and minimal impacts on traffic. Does this add up?

Years 2013 and 2014 resulted in more than 1,450 total single-family dwelling permits being issued by the City of Bend. These, combined with a handful of multi-unit developments are helping provide more housing for more people, but at the rate of projected growth, we simply will run out of land to build. Look for infill projects, zoning changes, perhaps height changes to allow development to go up instead of out. I will touch on what a permit fee in Bend costs: just shy of $24,000 per single family dwelling unit. Those greedy developers pay hundreds of thousands of dollars in permit fees to build apartment complexes which provide much needed housing for our community members. I met a developer who paid above $1,800,000 in permit fees for the apartment complex he is excited to build. It’s not cheap to develop in Bend – maybe our fees are too high? Could that play a role in lack of rental housing? A sidewalk permit fee in Bend is more than $600; in Redmond it is around $40. Hmmm… .

Let’s dream that our UGB proposal is approved in 2016. That would be great; however, due to zoning changes, land-use applications and legal appeals against development by contiguous property owners who don’t agree with changes, realistically we will be about four years away from shovel-ready dirt. What that means is another four years of tightened supply, increased land costs and less affordability for everyone. I wish it was a rental bubble but there is no bubble here.

Welcome to Bend. We may no longer be the quiet little town in Central Oregon, but that’s OK. We have a bright future ahead and by combining our energies, knowledge and data we can continue to be a destination city with quality schools, family-wage jobs and abundant natural resources that surround us.