While professionals working in the real estate market in Jefferson County hesitate to call it a “hot” market, it is certainly heating up. In 2014 there were 32 total single family residence building permits issued in Jefferson County, according to information provided by Wayne Marshall, an agent with Coldwell Banker–Dick Dodson Realty and recent appointee to the board of directors of the Central Oregon Association of Realtors. For comparison, in 2017 a total of 91 SFR permits were issued, representing steady growth over the last several years and a significant increase from the 51 total permits issued in 2016.

“The market is very strong here,” said Marshall. “I don’t know that it is a hot market, but it is a very strong and steady market.”

Richard “Rick” Allen, broker and owner of Willow Canyon Property Group and Willow Canyon Properties—a property management company based in Madras that handles the bulk of the rental market in Jefferson County—concurs with Marshall’s assessment of the market.

“The market has definitely heated up, in particular during the last year,” said Allen. “We tend to run behind Bend, Redmond, and Sisters. In the outlying areas, we are always later to see impact. We don’t rise as high as fast, but we also don’t fall as low as fast either.”

Allen said that he has observed the Jefferson County market tending to run a year to several years behind a boom in the Bend market.

“As Bend heats up, people start looking to Redmond, and as Redmond heats up, people look to La Pine, Prineville, and Madras,” said Allen. “If Bend is not booming, there certainly isn’t going to be boom in outlying areas.”

Allen said that he is seeing more buyers, homes spending fewer days on the market, and prices going up, reaching market prices similar to the last real estate boom in 2005–2007.

“The average days on the market over the course of a year are approximately 125, and 45 to 60 days of that are when the house is pending,” said Marshall. “Selling price had a median of $180,000 in November 2017, which is a 17.6 percent increase since last year at this time.”

Mike Ahern, managing principal broker with Coldwell Banker–Dick Dodson Realty recalls when the median selling price for homes in Jefferson County was $72,500, back in 2012.

“We went very, very low during the Great Recession,” said Ahern. “We have finally recovered.”

Contributing to the recovery are people moving to Jefferson County from outside the region, as well as those moving to the area from within Central Oregon.

“Many are from Portland and Seattle,” said Ahern. “They sold their homes for very high prices and want to move to the nice town of Madras. They want to leave the crowds and purchase a nice home for a good price.”

Ahern is also seeing many Central Oregon renters—many who work in Redmond and Prineville—become homebuyers in Jefferson County, as interest rates are low and rents continue to rise. According to data provided by Allen, the average rent for a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Jefferson County is $1,200–1,295 monthly, while 2 bedroom, 1 bath apartments go for $650–700.

“We are seeing great success with building starter homes in Culver and Madras,” said Allen. “Our buyers are one of two things: over half are retirees coming from Bend or Redmond, Portland, Seattle, California, or Arizona—most of whom are from higher income markets so they can pay cash. And the other half are nonretirees who want to buy their first house—many are blue-collar workers who can’t afford the Bend market.”

Culver in particular is in very high demand for buyers, said Allen. With its small school system, proximity to Redmond, and outdoor recreation opportunities, the area has a strong appeal.

According to Marshall, there are no new subdivisions planned for the region, although new building continues on established subdivisions, much of it at Crooked River Ranch.

“We have a good inventory of very affordable lots,” said Ahern. “When these start selling out, new subdivisions will happen.”

One issue that Allen sees impacting the potential for the market to respond to the need and interest is the lack of skilled trade workers. He said that he regularly receives calls from people who have purchased a lot but who cannot find anyone to build their home for them due to a lack of contractors.

“Because the Central Oregon market is so hot, plumbers, framers, and the like are in high demand,” said Allen. “You can’t get a call back, and there are long wait times, plus the costs have gone up. This has a profound impact on the decisions people make on building or remodeling.”

Allen said that there are 20–30 percent fewer people in the trades now than during the last building boom and subsequent bust.

“Many subcontracting companies then went broke or teetered on broke,” said Allen. “And now they are more cautious and are not hiring up. Roofing companies are not taking any more customers, electricians are four months out just to get an appointment, even Home Depot carpet installations are months out. It has a very significant impact on the market. It is almost a crisis.”

Meanwhile, the new homes being built in Jefferson County seem to be selling before the building is completed, said Marshall. And the economy is great, confirmed Ahern, citing the new Daimler plant that just opened, creating 30–40 well-paying jobs.

“Jefferson County is a desirable place to live,” said Allen. “It’s a great opportunity for people who still want to buy a nice home to own and still live in Central Oregon. Prices haven’t become obscene and we are blessed here—there is less snow, we are closer to Portland, the Deschutes River is in our backyard, and there is lots of outdoor recreation without the hustle and bustle of other parts of the region. My advice is get off the main street and take a look around—the community will sell itself. You will be amazed at what you can find here.”