Don’t over think it: Volatility is back

Published 12:00 am Wednesday, February 7, 2018

If Wall Street fell to its knees Monday, it stood upright and staggered forward Tuesday.

The Dow Jones industrial average, which peaked at 26,616 on Jan. 26 and slid by Monday to 24,345, by Tuesday had risen again to 24,914, basically where it stood at the beginning of January. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index also peaked Jan. 26 at 2,872, fell and then regrouped Tuesday to end at 2,695.

Call it a correction, profit-taking or an unpleasant experience, but don’t call it a bear market or the start of a recession, market watchers said Tuesday. Just accept that volatility, the normal ups and downs of stock prices, is back.

“We’re at the top of the market, and volatility is inevitable,” said Jon Wolf, economics instructor at Central Oregon Community College and a former trader. “It’s profit-taking for some and a buying opportunity for others.”

Investors should stick to their investment goals — retirement or a child’s education, for example — and take the long view, he said.

“We were at a 12 1⁄2 percent five-year average before this last run,” Wolf said. “We’re up 23 percent. The market could fall by 12 1⁄2 percent and we’d still be at the five-year average.”

The stock market for 15 months displayed little or no volatility, said Ralph Cole, executive vice president for research and portfolio management at Portland’s Ferguson Wellman Capital Management.

“That’s not typical,” Cole said Tuesday. “It’s typical even in a bull market that you get this pullback. The reasons are always clear in hindsight, but sometimes it’s just an excuse to upset the apple cart.”

This downturn “seems almost an anomaly,” he said. Economic fundamentals otherwise are strong; interest rates are low; employment is high, and wages are starting to grow, which puts money into consumer pockets but creates inflationary fears.

“The irony a little bit is that the economy is incredibly strong,” Cole said. “We’re actually starting to see wage growth, and the problem with the current cycle is there’s been virtually no wage growth.”

In a memo Monday to clients, Ferguson Wellman analysts wrote: “The market is selling off over the concern that growth and inflation will accelerate, causing the (Federal Reserve) and possibly other central banks around the world to tighten more than is expected. The market is undergoing an adjustment of expectations around rate hikes and interest rates.”

Rates may rise, increasing the cost to borrow, but not enough to slow global economic growth, according to the memo.

Wolf, returning to comments he made in October on the 30th anniversary of Black Monday, the biggest one-day drop in Wall Street history, said don’t over think the situation.

“Market volatility shouldn’t change your goals if your investment goals are long term,” he said. “Even with (the recent downturn), people are better off than they were Jan. 1.”

— Reporter: 541-617-7815, jditzler@bendbulletin.com

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