Consumers could get socked by Trump’s tariffs

Published 12:00 am Tuesday, July 24, 2018

Wendy Howard is worried.

A steady uptick in prices and in her cost of living led the Chicago native to abandon retirement to reboot her teaching career. She doesn’t eat out and is concerned her holiday shopping could be curtailed if the Trump administration’s trade war with China pushes prices higher.

“I’m a retired teacher; I’m going to have to take another teaching job, so that I can hopes of retiring one day,” she said.

Howard’s worries are legitimate, but not immediate, economists say.

Prices for everything from housing to car insurance to eating out are rising. Economists predict consumer prices will climb higher if the Trump administration’s efforts to impose tariffs on imported goods succeed. During an interview with CNBC broadcast Friday, President Donald Trump suggested he’d be willing to assess tariffs on almost every product imported from China.

“If the price of your auto parts goes up, it will eventually get passed on to consumers, but the question is, how quickly?” said Philip Levy, a senior fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

Nationally, consumer prices rose 2.9 percent in the 12 months that ended in June, the largest increase in more than six years.

Also increasing is the number of hours workers are putting in each week, according to Katheryn Russ, an economist at the University of California at Davis. If workers are taking home more money, Russ said, it’s because they are working more hours. Inflation is chipping away at those wage gains.

Experts warn consumers not to overextend themselves financially.

“I wouldn’t do any purchasing I wasn’t planning to,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton.

A 20 percent tariff on imported Canadian lumber, implemented last year, upped the cost of new single-family homes by $9,000, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

Tariffs of 20 to 50 percent on washing machines from China, South Korea and Mexico have increased prices of foreign-made washers by $50 to $90, retailers say.

There is a 10 percent tariff on imported aluminum and 25 percent tariff on imported steel, Russ said.

The price of U.S.-made kegs for beer is up, as is canned sodas and food.

The uptick is small, about 1 cent per can, but small increases add up.

The administration seeks to impose a 10 percent tariff on another $200 billion of Chinese imports, meaning consumers could be stuck with higher prices on items they shop for everyday — hats to kids’ bicycles to some televisions

Those tariffs could take effect after Aug. 30.

Russ estimated the tariffs in place could raise American household spending by $24 to $147 a year, depending on the household’s income.

These costs could put a dent in last year’s tax cut, according to Russ.

If the trade battle continues, it could turn the economy upside down and push the nation into a recession next year, Swonk said.

But right now, there’s some breathing room.

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