Heading to the hall (and getting little respect)

Published 12:00 am Thursday, August 30, 2018

In an eventful NBA offseason, a curious thing happened: One of the greatest players to play the game — a sure Hall of Famer — was traded for spare parts in a salary dump.

If that were not bad enough, the team that acquired him then bought out his contract and released him. Weeks later, the same situation is playing out for another certain Hall of Famer.

We are, of course, talking about Dwight Howard and Carmelo Anthony, two players as polarizing as they are accomplished.

For much of their careers, they were in the game’s highest tier, widely considered to be top-10 players, if not among the top five. Despite being healthy and well short of typical retirement age, they are treated mostly as afterthoughts.

Welcome to the new NBA.

“If something doesn’t work, go ahead and get a buyout or go ahead and get traded,” Anthony told reporters Thursday in justifying his treatment. “That’s the new norm in our society in basketball. I had to get over that.”

The messy way the careers of Howard and Anthony are wrapping up has inspired much online debate about their Hall of Fame credentials.

Their resumes are packed with accomplishments. Fans with short memories treat the induction of Howard and Anthony as an open question.

To be clear: Any debate about either is ridiculous. By the statistic Hall of Fame probability, which is compiled by Basketball-Reference, Howard has a 99.3 percent chance of Hall of Fame induction and Anthony is behind at 98.2 percent.

No single statistic explains a entire career, but the Basketball-Reference model, which accounts for height, NBA championships, appearances on NBA leaderboards, win shares at a player’s peak and All-Star selections, has a record of accuracy.

Of the 113 players given a 50 percent or greater chance of enshrinement, 89 have reached Hall of Fame eligibility. Of that group, 85 have been inducted. Only Larry Foust, a center for the Fort Wayne Pistons in the 1950s, was given a greater than 90 percent chance without making the Hall.

With that in mind, an interesting experiment is to build a starting five of list players who are going to be Hall of Famers someday — barring a criminal conviction or revelations about gambling or on-court cheating — and still find their credentials litigated by fans desperate to knock them down a peg.

Dwight Howard, center

Hall of fame probability: 99.3 percent

Credentials: The No. 1 overall pick in the 2004 draft, Howard is a three-time defensive player of the year and was named to eight All-NBA teams. He has career averages of 17.4 points, 12.7 rebounds and two blocks a game. At his peak, he was a force on both ends of the court and a slam-dunk contest champion. His outgoing personality was at one time seen as a strength.

The case against him: A back injury made his prime less spectacular than it might have been, but his journeyman status late in his career is more about his personality and salary than his play on the court, which remained exceptional. His tumultuous exit from Orlando, seems to be the sticking point for many people, along with his lack of championship rings.

Backup: Pau Gasol, 93.4 percent chance.

Chris Bosh, power forward

Hall of fame probability: 99.5 percent

Credentials: Bosh was a pioneering small-ball center for the Miami Heat during two championship runs after joining with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. He was one of the few players who meant it when he said he would sacrifice personal statistics to win championships.

He was named to 11 consecutive All-Star Games, won an Olympic gold medal, and averaged 19.2 points and 8.5 rebounds in a 13-year career that ended when he was 31 because of medical problems. That he was reasserting himself as a superstar in Miami after James’ departure made his early exit frustrating.

The case against him: Seen by many as the weakest link in the Big Three, his years of being the best player for Toronto were quickly forgotten by those who view him as a role player.

Backup: Kevin Love, 67.6 percent chance.

Carmelo Anthony, small forward

Hall of fame probability: 98.2 percent

Credentials: The 22nd-leading scorer in NBA history, Anthony led Syracuse to an NCAA championship, was a key player and leader of three gold-medal-winning Olympic teams, and was named to 10 All-Star teams and six All-NBA teams. He has career averages of 24.1 points and 6.5 rebounds a game.

The case against him: Never a model of efficiency, Anthony has most often been questioned for a lack of defensive effort. He also gets dinged for his clashes with several coaches and teammates. His teams have made the playoffs 11 times, but they have advanced to the second round just twice. He has never played in a conference finals, let alone an NBA Finals.

Backup: There are no other small forward to compete with Anthony.

Vince Carter, guard

Hall of fame probability: 94.6 percent

Credentials: He jumped over the head of a 7-foot-2 center for a dunk during the 2000 Olympics. He was also named to eight All-Star teams, won a Rookie of the Year Award, won a slam-dunk contest and averaged 25 or more points a game in four different seasons (and 17.7 points a game for the entirety of his career, which is at 20 years). And it should be mentioned again that he jumped over the head of a 7-foot-2 center for a dunk during the 2000 Olympics.

The case against him: His explosive start in Toronto, which extended into his time with the Brooklyn Nets, gave way to a much quieter latter half of his career, in which he dunked less and played more with his head than his body. He has also never advanced beyond the conference finals.

Backup: Joe Johnson, 50.6 percent chance.

Chris Paul, point guard

Hall of fame probability: 99.9 percent

Credentials: Paul is widely regarded as one of the finest point guards to step on a court. He has been named to eight All-NBA teams, nine All-Star teams and nine all-defensive teams; won a Rookie of the Year Award; led the NBA in steals six times and in assists four times; and he has two Olympic gold medals.

He even managed a late-career surprise by seamlessly fitting into coach Mike D’Antoni’s system in Houston, raising the Rockets from a good team to the only legitimate challenger to the Golden State Warriors in the NBA.

And he is not done yet.

The case against him: Until last season, Paul’s teams had never advanced to a conference final, let alone an NBA Final, and many considered that a failure that landed on his shoulders as the Clippers had talent to spare in several of his seasons in Los Angeles.

Backups: Russell Westbrook, 99.1 percent chance; Tony Parker, 93.9 percent.

The Hall of Fame Class of 2018 will be inducted Sept. 7 in Springfield, Massachusetts.

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