While skiers and snowboarders are praying for snow this weekend, the powder doesn’t necessarily translate into November tourism bookings.

Traditionally November is among the lowest months for transient room tax collections in Bend, snow or no snow. Last November the city of Bend collected $426,303 in transient room tax, a 7 percent decline from the same time the year before, and that was with Mt. Bachelor opening Nov. 18, five days before Thanksgiving.

The November 2017 lodging tax collection was 28 percent higher than the same month of 2015.

“The data from the transient room tax perspective doesn’t show a correlation between the mountain opening up early and an increase in the transient room tax,” said Kevney Dugan, Visit Bend CEO. “But it does build excitement and bodes well for the rest of the winter.”

Unlike summer, when hotels and vacation rentals are more than 80 percent occupied, the early winter months — November and December — often are snow-dependent.

Unpredictable weather makes it difficult for businesses to forecast staffing demands and inventory, said Justin Yax, a partner at DVA Advertising & Public Relations a Bend firm that specializes in destination marketing.

“All we can do is wait patiently for these storms to start lining up,” Yax said. “This is not an issue unique to Bend and Mt. Bachelor in the West right now, which means we’re not losing business to other resorts or destinations.”

Wanderlust Tours, which offers caving, hiking, snowshoeing and beer tours in the winter, found that diversification is key to keeping the doors open, owner David Nissen said. In his 25 years at the helm of Wanderlust Tours, Nissen said about half the years there was snow by Thanksgiving.

“We’re most definitely affected if it snows or not,” Nissen said. “A lot of people call us about snowshoeing and skiing and we have to add a caveat that we’re happy to take their booking, but there might be something else they might do.”

Snow is predicted over the Thanksgiving holiday, and Mt. Bachelor announced Monday it will open one of its chairlifts and a mini terrain park with rails and boxes on Saturday. The ski area needs about 2 feet of snow before it can begin preparing chairlifts for opening.

As they sit down to Thanksgiving turkey, Mt. Bachelor officials will be keeping a keen eye on mountain cameras and checking the conditions of the slopes for temperature and snow accumulations before the Saturday opening, said Drew Jackson, Mt. Bachelor’s director of sales and marketing.

This is the first year Mt. Bachelor announced it would open for the season when there wasn’t a base layer of snow on the ground.

“This year is unique,” Jackson said. “We’re taking a big leap of faith and trusting in the weather.”

Typically snow doesn’t attract visitors to Central Oregon until December, said Damon Runberg, Oregon Employment Department regional economist. In a broad brush look at winter tourism in Oregon, Runberg said he found that snowy weather in the mountains doesn’t equal a boost to the leisure and hospitality market because it is hard to get here during snowy events. And while more snow means more jobs, Runberg said in a report issued in 2017, those jobs are confined to the ski industry and not to the broader leisure market.

Transient room taxes are collected on every accommodation booked and are used as an indicator of market strength.

“It doesn’t really ramp up until the Christmas week, compared to the summer season when it blows winter out of the water,” Runberg said. “Skiing isn’t a big contributor for tourism. Mt. Bachelor’s reputation is a really important introduction to Bend and Central Oregon. It’s a critical anchor for us.”

While November historically has been a low collector of tax dollars, it is often pitched to the meetings and convention market as a good time to come for nonsnow-related activities, Nissen said. That market segment works far in the future, booking room nights activities months ahead.

“From the little niche that I serve in this community, snow is important to our business,” Nissen said. “Moms and dads who want to take part in a snowy activity won’t come here if there’s no snow. Corporate groups are vastly different than family travel. Snow absolutely draws people into our front door.”

Alpenglow Vacation Rentals sees all kinds of people book one of the 38 properties for rent on a short-term basis, said Victoria Smith. Some plan months in advance, others just days, she said.

And it only happens in winter, she said. Summer, which is the strong season in Central Oregon, is booked months in advance.

“When we’re having a great weather change, people can book at the last minute,” Smith said. “But just because we don’t have snow now, it doesn’t detour some guests, because they see it as a good time to go rock climbing, hiking or mountain biking.”

Snow or no snow, Smith said, her reservations haven’t changed in the past week.

“But they could come in over the weekend since the forecast calls for snow,” she said.

— Reporter: 541-633-2117, sroig@bendbulletin.com