Ducks’ loss a big blow, but Pac-12 can still make noise

Published 12:00 am Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Oregon’s gut-punch of a loss against Auburn on Saturday in Arlington, Texas, certainly hurt the perception of the Pac-12 Conference.

Not that the conference was walking tall or anything.

On Sunday, Ducks coach Mario Cristobal left me with three words. They summed up the feeling a coach might have if he had put on a physical display against an SEC opponent, flirted with what would have been a monstrous victory, but left with nothing to show for it.

Cristobal’s words: “Sucks. Pissed. Motivated.”

But what that loss did not do was kill the College Football Playoff hopes for the conference. Perception damaged, yes. Opportunity blown, absolutely. For Oregon mostly. But the narrative that the Pac-12 is now somehow out of the playoff is just not true.

Nor is it true that Arizona losing to Hawaii or UCLA losing to Cincinnati kills the conference’s playoff hopes, either. Those losses damage the brand of the individual programs and the Pac-12. It hurts national perception, sure. But the only thing that matters in potentially making the playoff is that the conference has one of the four best teams in the eyes of the playoff committee.

Opening-week losses hurt for sure, but they do not kill. Not unless a line of teams in the conference fail to get to seven quality victories and a playoff contender’s strength of schedule becomes a factor.

Utah is still alive as a playoff candidate. So are Washington State, Washington, Stanford and USC. Oregon and the rest might not even be done, given that a one-loss candidate and the right combination of factors in the Big Ten, SEC and ACC would still leave the door open.

The Pac-12 needs a program to carry the flag. It needs one team to separate itself, win big games, and position itself as a playoff candidate the same way Clemson does in the ACC. But if we are being real about what has kept the conference out of the playoff the last two seasons, it is not the perception of the conference.

Simply, the Pac-12 has not recently presented a contender with a worthy resume.

In fact, only two of the 20 College Football Playoff entries have come from the Pac-12. In part, I believe, because the conference has hamstrung itself with a crappy media-rights revenue stream that will leave each member institution at a $100 million disadvantage vs. its SEC peers in the period between 2014 and 2024.

Can you imagine what Oregon State, Arizona and Washington State would do with an extra $100 million? We’re talking about an expanded recruiting footprint, upgrades in training and nutrition, more pay for assistant coaches and improved facilities. It is a staggering disadvantage over time.

Also, the Pac-12 plays nine conference games vs. the eight that the SEC plays. It is simple math. That extra conference game is one more opportunity each team in the conference has to blemish each other’s record. Also, one more chance for the conference to inhibit each other’s ability to get to seven quality wins.

Further, half of the Pac-12 Conference will play five conference road games this season. SEC teams chasing 12-0 never go on the road in conference play more than four times in a season.

These factors are killers over time. The conference does not appear motivated to change either one, though. On Pac-12 media day, conference commissioner Larry Scott was asked whether the conference might consider going to an eight-game conference schedule.

He shot it down.

“Our schools do not approach it from the perspective of how do we game the system or simply have it be about the College Football Playoff,” Scott said. “But that’s a decision our schools make.”

The Pac-12 does not just play those nine games vs. its own conference members. USC and Stanford also traditionally schedule Notre Dame. And the rest of the Pac-12 programs try to schedule a challenging nonconference game as well (this season, for example: Oregon vs. Auburn, Oregon State vs. Oklahoma State).

“Fans are not going to turn up for games that are not competitive,” Scott said. “So I actually think we’re a little bit ahead of the curve.”

Also, beyond that curve, more likely to end up in the nonplayoff roadside ditch.

Question: Is the Pac-12 out of the playoff after one week?

Nope.

It is a false narrative. The conference certainly did not get off to a stellar start. Oregon’s loss to Auburn damaged nationally perception. But that is all. UCLA, Oregon State and Arizona sputtering out of the gates also hurt the brand and dropped those programs to 0-1. But that is all.

To suggest that the Washington or Washington State are somehow eliminated from the playoff because the Ducks dropped a touchdown pass, missed a chip-shot field goal and wasted a bunch timeouts on the way to defeat is absurd.

I’m not even convinced Oregon is out.

Yet.

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