Oscar predictions

Published 2:00 am Thursday, February 6, 2020

Whether you watch for the fashion, the ceremony or for the speeches (Who are you?), this year’s Academy Awards arrive Sunday.

Hollywood will turn out in force for this year’s ceremony celebrating the best and brightest in cinema last year. Whatever your opinion may be on the films nominated or the awards themselves, 2019 had a plethora of great films that moviegoers went to see in droves. We saw the highest-grossing film of all time, nine films that crossed the billion-dollar mark, there were sequels, reboots, original smashes and sleeper hits.

The Academy Awards, airing live at 5 p.m., will deliver accolades to just a sliver of the films from last year, some deserving, some not so much. But who will win? Here are my predictions:

(Note: not every category is represented as I haven’t seen all the nominated films or don’t know enough on the category to give an educated guess — looking at you, sound mixing)

Best Picture

Sam Mendes’ war epic “1917” is expertly shot and delivers a thrill ride that keeps the viewers heart in their throat. It picked up the best in show at the Golden Globes and at the Producers Guild, Director’s Guild and British Academy of Film and Television awards ceremonies, and it checks a lot of boxes the Academy typically goes for: war, history and spectacle being a few.

“Parasite” should win this one in my opinion. As great as “1917” is, however, it can be seen as more of a “by the numbers” award darling, whereas “Parasite” is a gorgeous example of amazing storytelling through a lense Western audiences (and much of the Academy for that matter) aren’t necessarily used to.

Actor

Joaquin Phoenix deserves the award for his masterful turn as the Crown Prince of Crime himself in “Joker.” He’s another one who has been racking up the statues throughout awards season. His performance is nuanced, alarming and disturbing all at once. This wouldn’t be the first time the Academy has awarded an actor for playing the Batman villain either — they gave the gold (sadly, posthumously) to Heath Ledger’s portrayal of the character in “The Dark Knight” in 2009.

I am still pretty bummed that some of my favorite performances from last year, Taron Egerton in “Rocketman” and Song Kang Ho in “Parasite” weren’t nominated.

Actress

It’s Renee Zellweger’s to lose. Her performance as tragic Hollywood icon Judy Garland in “Judy” checks a lot of those boxes the Academy loves to award.

Actor in a Supporting Role

I read a review last year that stated Brad Pitt is a character actor stuck in a leading man’s body, and his role as an aging stuntman in “Once Upon a time in Hollywood” kind of encapsulates that. He’s good at it, so he’ll probably win.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Laura Dern’s performance in “Marriage Story” is the perfect example of a what supporting performance should look like. While I thought Dern’s performance was excellent, I would not be angry if Scarlett Johansson pulled an upset. Her performance in “Jojo Rabbit” was the best I have ever seen from her, and this is coming from someone who was pretty “meh” when it came to ScarJo’s abilities on screen, this year she proved me wrong twice. Florence Pugh in “Little Women” also deserves the accolade.

Animated Feature Film

The finale of the franchise that kicked off computer graphic interface films “Toy Story 4” will probably take it. Though it is facing steep competition from a couple of typical outliers in the animated awards category. “Klaus,” for instance, was such a touching and beautifully animated film that it could easily take it.

Cinematography

In any other hands, “1917” could have been a cut and dry war movie. Because of Roger Deakins’ expert camera work he created a claustrophobic, volatile and immersive world of war that makes the film work.

Directing

Sam Mendes will most likely take home the gold here. Mendes is the one who pulled “1917” all together, and for many of the same reasons Roger Deakin’s deserves the award for cinematography, Mendes deserves it for directing. Though the Academy does love career awards, and could hand it to Quentin Tarantino for “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” they may be holding off until his supposed 10th and final film. Now, we could see a repeat of what happened last year, with the award for directing going to the international favorite Alfonso Cuaron’s “Roma.” I would love to see Bong Joon Ho take it home for “Parasite.”

International Feature Film

“Parasite” hands down will get it. Though there is the possibility that because it’s also up for Best Picture, it could split the vote with many members of the Academy giving them the top prize and choosing something like “Les Miserables” for foreign film. Though I’m pretty certain “Parasite” will get it and deservedly so.

Music (original score)

While John Williams’ score for “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” is great and he could easily be awarded the Oscar, more in recognition for his entire career rather than the one film, Hildur Gunadóttir’s score for “Joker” is brilliant. It gives you just a dose of unease and anxiety with every note while not overpowering the already intense film.

Music (original song)

It’s going to be Elton John and longtime songwriting partner and friend Bernie Taupin’s “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from “Rocketman.” Nothing else really comes close.

Writing (adapted screenplay)

Greta Gerwig’s script for “Little Women” is fresh, fun and full of heart. A lot of people may think the Academy is simply placating the controversy surrounding Gerwig’s snub for the Best Director nod, but she really does deserve it. “Jojo Rabbit” scribe Taika Waititi also has a chance of scooping up the award for something equally as heart filled and fresh, though with a completely different tone.

Writing (original screenplay)

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association gave this award to Quentin Tarantino for “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” but I can seriously see Bong Joon Ho taking it for “Parasite.”

Personally, I think “Parasite” had a stronger and more cohesive script (maybe even the best writing of the past few years) whereas “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” tended to meander at times.

There you have it. Disagree with my picks? Enter into our Oscar predictions contest and you may win a $50 movie gift bag!

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