The ripples from the lockdown of businesses to contain COVID-19 is throwing Oregon into a recession, a Central Oregon economist says.

It’s also putting thousands out of work.

In one week, from March 8 to March 15, the jobless claims skyrocketed 880% in Deschutes County. The lion’s share are in the hospitality and leisure sector of the job market, said Damon Runberg, Oregon Employment Department regional economist via a Zoom meeting.

“That figure is probably an understatement,” Runberg said. “Not a lot of businesses are hiring unless you’re a grocery store. This is the initial shock to prevent a much worse economic crisis if this virus is left to run its course.”

Economists can call a recession when the gross domestic product is down for two consecutive quarters, he said.

Oregonians can expect to start recovery by late summer, Runberg said.

That’s a long wait for Arthur Tripp, who is one of those 1,322 people in Deschutes County filing for unemployment last week. When the Brown Owl closed because of Gov. Kate Brown’s order to restrict dining-in at bars and restaurants, Tripp, a bartender, filed for unemployment. Nationwide, more than 3 million people are unemployed and seeking relief by filing unemployment claims.

While Tripp hasn’t received any benefits yet, he has received confirmation of his claim.

“I am mostly worried that we don’t know how long this will take to get through,” Tripp said. “If school is canceled until April 28, I imagine the bars and restaurants won’t reopen before then.”

In Oregon, 76,500 initial claims were filed March 15-21, but only 22,800 claims have been processed, Runberg said. The leisure and hospitality sector, which includes hotels and restaurants, saw the greatest number of initial claims for unemployment benefits, more than 10,000, Runberg said.

Crook County had 140 claims for unemployment and Jefferson County had 81 for the week ending March 21, according to the data.

During the first week of March, there were 188 unemployment claims in Deschutes County. Employees filing a claim can receive a minimum of $151 a week in unemployment benefits to a maximum of $648 a week. Under the federal stimulus plan additional federal unemployment will be handed out as well, Runberg said.

If the three counties can control the spread of the virus, the recovery can come quickly and be more v-shaped, Runberg said. But if it is more protracted, the recovery will take longer and be more U-shaped.

“A v-shaped recovery will have lots of jobs lost, but we’ll regain quickly,” Runberg said. “If it’s not under control and the economy stays shut down, that’s the U-shaped recovery where a future recession is more devastating and longer-lasting and affects more industries.”

“It’s on us. Follow the rules and stay home. Save the economy by watching TV.”

Susan Gruber, owner of Permanent Makeup by Susan in downtown Bend, has been closed for business for about two weeks now. A 70-year-old entrepreneur, Gruber is looking to keep busy by finding temporary work as a grocery delivery driver.

Once the stay-at-home policy is lifted, she’ll go back to her shop, but in the meantime, she’s been applying for work.

“There are jobs out there,” Gruber said. “I worked in a grocery store for 18 years. I don’t want to do that now. My body isn’t up to doing that kind of work, and I don’t want to be around the public. I don’t want to risk it.”

To view the slideshow presentation on the Bend Chamber of Commerce’s website go to. 

These are links for filing unemployment.

Unemployment insurance FAQ (COVID-19 related layoff)

File a claim at https://wcd.oregon.gov/Pages/index.aspx

To find out your weekly benefits: https://secure.emp.state.or.us/ocs/estimator/

Source: Oregon Workers’ Compensation Division