Were Neil Olshey’s flurry of roster moves enough to build contender around Damian Lillard?: Portland Trail Blazers roster analysis

Published 6:46 am Tuesday, November 24, 2020

The Portland Trail Blazers most direct path toward winning a championship would likely be to acquire a second All-Star to pair with Damian Lillard.

All-Stars, preferably superstars, win NBA titles. That’s simply the way it is.

While many fans had hoped, like they do every offseason, that Portland would find a way to land that second All-Star (even through a trade involving borderline All-Star CJ McCollum) such a move didn’t happen. It might never happen.

So, Neil Olshey, president of basketball operations, did the next best thing. He loaded the roster with usable parts, each expected to fill certain glaring areas of need that should, at the very least, make this team better.

Forwards Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr. were high on Olshey’s list from the beginning. He wanted to add versatile, defensive-minded forwards that could upgrade the defense from pitiful (27th in defensive rating) to respectable, which alone would make the Blazers a considerably better team.

Covington came via trade with Houston. Jones was signed with the mid-level exception.

“We believed the biggest upside for this roster is on the defensive end of the court,” Olshey said.

The offense, which ranked third in offensive rating, was not neglected. Olshey re-signed 10-time All-Star forward Carmelo Anthony as a reserve to provide offensive punch off the bench.

“He is an incredible spirit for us to have around our building,” Olshey said.

A trade of forward Mario Hezonja to bring in center Enes Kanter, who spent part of the previous season with the Blazers, also upgraded the second-unit’s offense, as does the return of forward Rodney Hood.

Center Harry Giles III, signed to a minimum deal, adds big man depth with some upside, should he remain healthy.

The additions were all salary cap friendly moving forward. Olshey said the team is about $600,000 below the tax threshold of $132.6 million.

Covington has two years remaining on his contract worth about $25 million. Jones signed for two years and $19 million. Being on short contracts limits commitment and makes them very tradable should an opportunity to upgrade materializes. Kanter and Hood have one year remaining on their deals. The second year on Hood’s contract is not guaranteed.

All moves, Olshey said, revolved around fit and the trajectory of Lillard, McCollum and Nurkic.

“We make decisions around what best compliments them,” Olshey said.

What he has achieved is adding veteran help in areas of need while maintaining future flexibility and not disrupting the younger group of Gary Trent Jr., Zach Collins, Anfernee Simons and Nassir Little.

“I think we’re a better team than we were last year,” Olshey said. “I think we’re deeper.”

The roster’s versatility is off the charts, something Olshey said he wanted to achieve.

“The league is going more position-less,” he said. “What we wanted really was guys that can play multiple positions, that have defensive versatility, that are more athletic, that are longer, that can shrink the court, that are more switchable, that can be more disruptive defensively. We’re hoping to get out in transition a little more to get some more easy baskets.”

On paper, this roster certainly appears to be able to accomplish all of those goals. But can it contend for an NBA title?

Here is a position-by-position look at the roster and how this team could fit together:

ROSTER BREAKDOWN

GUARDS

Point guard depth: Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Anfernee Simons.

Shooting guard depth: CJ McCollum, Gary Trent Jr., Derrick Jones Jr., Rodney Hood, CJ Elleby.

Analysis: Lillard is Lillard. McCollum is McCollum. You know them. You love them. No need going over their immense abilities.

Maybe the only mystery at the guard position during the offseason revolved around what the team would do at backup point guard. Portland didn’t sign one. When asked why, Olshey responded: “We have a backup point guard. It’s Anfernee Simons.”

True, but at the bubble he scored seven points in five seeding games, sat out three others and played just two minutes in two others. Clearly there was a lack of confidence in his ability to impact important games. But that truth was not enough to cause Olshey to seek an alternative.

First off, Olshey explained, he would have only had a minimum salary slot to use and that he wouldn’t have netted a player better than Simons for a role that isn’t that large to begin with.

“95 percent of our possessions last year were played with Dame or CJ at point guard,” Olshey said. “That’s our model. We believe that Anfernee Simons is as good or better than any of the minimum (salaried) point guards that we would be able to go out and go get.”

Simons averaged 20.7 minutes per game over 70 games last season. Not bad for the No. 3 option at point guard. What he needs to prove now is that he can command more minutes in more meaningful games.

As for shooting guard, Trent is the primary backup but he will be pushed by Hood. Trent had a breakout session at the NBA bubble. Another leap forward could open the door for more time at both shooting guard and small forward. Trent averaged 21.8 minutes per game last season but that was boosted by injuries to Hood and by Trevor Arizona opting out of the bubble.

“He took advantage of that opportunity,” Olshey said of Trent. “I expect him to build off of that this year.”

FORWARDS

Small forward depth: Derrick Jones Jr., Robert Covington, Rodney Hood, Gary Trent Jr., Nassir Little, CJ Elleby.

Power forward depth: Robert Covington, Carmelo Anthony, Zach Collins (injured), maybe Enes Kanter and Harry Giles III.

Analysis: This is going to be the most fascinating area of the team all season long. How coach Terry Stotts juggles all of these players with 96 available minutes at the two forward spots is going to be interesting to follow.

Also, the potential combinations at small forward and power forward are dizzying.

To start the season, expect to see Covington at power forward while Collins continues to work his way back from an ankle injury. Olshey said Collins probably won’t return to action until late January.

Jones wasn’t given the full mid-level exception to not start, so he and his defensive prowess will get the first look at small forward. But remember that Hood was darn good last season before rupturing his Achilles in early December 2019. He will give Jones a run for his money for the starting job and at the very least command a lot of minutes. Hood is the better outside shooter with a career three-point shooting percentage of 37.2%.

But Jones, 28.2% from three-point range, is an amazing athlete that is seemingly a dunk waiting to happen when he drives toward the basket. Plus, he is an immense defender, which is the priority this season at small forward.

Anthony will backup Covington at power forward and likely be the first scoring option for the second unit. Olshey said that such a role would allow Anthony greater usage as the primary scorer within the second unit as opposed to being on the fourth option with Lillard, McCollum and Nurkic. Playing fewer overall minutes, Olshey also pointed out, would make back-to-backs less of a concern and keep him fresher for closeout moments when his ability to make bit shots would become invaluable.

“We want him to be fresh in those minutes,” Olshey said.

Also, if improving the defense is top directive, starting Anthony, not known for defending well, wouldn’t make any sense with Covington and Jones on the roster.

The Blazers could also go super small with Lillard, McCollum, Trent at small forward, Jones at power forward and Covington at center, a position he played in Houston. Imagine that lineup flying up and down the court with defensive stalwarts, Trent, Jones and Covington being disruptive at that end.

When Collins returns, things become super complicated. Chances are that by then, if Covington is working out at power forward and Jones and Hood have small forward on lockdown, Collins could have to get in where he fits in. That might be a little at backup power forward and some at backup center.

Maybe Collins regains his starting job at power forward, Covington slides to small forward and is backed up by Jones and Hood. How Trent finds many minutes is unknown.

Not to get too radical, but the combinations here could also impact late game defensive situations. If Portland needs a stop late, why would it not go with Nurkic at center, Collins at power forward, Covington at small forward, Jones at shooting guard and Lillard at point guard with McCollum out of the game?

Stotts will have his work cut out for him trying to figure out all of the potential combinations at his disposal while attempting to keep everyone happy in their roles.

Oh yeah, almost forgot about Little.

CENTER

Center depth: Jusuf Nurkic, Enes Kanter, Zach Collins, Harry Giles III.

Analysis: Portland couldn’t reasonably ask for a better situation. Nurkic is one of the best true centers in the game. Such dinosaurs are a dying breed but Nurkic is more than impactful doing traditional center duties such as scoring in the post, rebounding and often operating beautifully in the pick and roll with Lillard. On defense, he is better than average. Nurkic has been attempting to develop a three-point shot and made 2 of 10 last season. If he could push that up over 30 percent, the Blazers might have a part-time stretch-5 on their hands.

Adding Kanter was huge. He will take pressure off of Nurkic who has never played more than 30 minutes per game other than during the bubble run last season when in eight games he logged 31.6. It’s doubtful that the Blazers want to push him much beyond that, if at all.

Kanter, who replaces free agent Hassan Whiteside, can be an offensive machine. He is marginal on defense, but in 20 minutes per night will more than make up for his deficiencies at that end with his offense with his innate scoring abilities. With Portland two seasons ago, Kanter averaged 13.1 points and 8.6 rebounds in just 22.2 minutes per game.

In theory, Nurkic and Kanter over 48 combined minutes per game could produce roughly 27 points and 17 boards per contest.

Collins could see some time at center, if needed. Olshey said he sees Giles as someone young enough to still develop but also experienced enough (104 career games) to produce in a meaningful games as an athletic, mobile center that could take advantage of undersized forwards.

FINAL WORD

Olshey undoubtedly improved the roster. Should the Blazers remain healthy, this team should be closer to the one that reached the Western Conference Finals in 2019 than it is to last season’s team that went 35-39 to barely sneak into the playoffs as the No. 8 seed.

How much closer remains to be seen. The Western Conference is extremely deep. But Golden State’s loss of Klay Thompson (Achilles) places the Warriors, once maybe a top 3 team, within reach of Portland.

The Blazers still have just one current All-Star on the roster, however. Will great depth be enough to overcome that fact? Will the combination of the skills possessed by Covington and Jones do the trick when a single player with their combined abilities is the type of impact star the Blazers truly need to contend with the likes of the Los Angeles Lakers, Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers?

“The ceiling is very high,” Covington said of the Blazers.

As are expectations. One irrefutable fact is that it’s going to be entertaining to watch this team attempt to do damage in the West.

— Aaron Fentress 5/8 afentress@Oregonian.com 5/8 @AaronJFentress (Twitter), @AaronJFentress (Instagram), @AaronFentress (Facebook).

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