In early March, grocery stores in Central Oregon began taking aggressive measures to prevent the possible spread of COVID-19. Here, Helena Schweigert wipes handles of shopping carts while working a shift at Newport Avenue Market on Thursday, March 12, 2020. The store had increased its cleaning and sanitizing of grocery carts, credit card terminals, counters and registers and other high-use areas at least twice daily.

Cases of COVID-19 could continue to climb over the next couple of weeks, but warmer weather, and more vaccinations, could thwart the spread.

As COVID-19 weariness weighs on everyone, with young people returning to sports and social activities and bars and restaurants opening up, more people are lowering their guard, health officials say. But the risk could be outweighed if more people were vaccinated. Starting Monday, anyone 16 and older in Central Oregon can sign up for a vaccine.

“It’s very frustrating to have a conversation like this because it’s such a fluid and unknown environment right now,” said Michael Johnson, St. Charles Health System senior data scientist. “Every model I’ve looked at shows it getting worse before it gets better. But we don’t know the magnitude.”

In the past two weeks, Deschutes County has seen daily case counts rise. On Tuesday, 34 new positive cases of COVID-19 were reported in the county three days after officials raised the risk level from moderate to high, which limits the amount of people who can gather inside and outside.

Case counts were 432 for the week of March 28 to April 10. The state evaluates each county every week and places them on either a warning week or a movement week up and down the risk scale.

Over the past two weeks, St. Charles Bend had a low of three patients with COVID-19 to as many as nine, Johnson said.

A review of the case counts by ZIP codes prepared by the Oregon Health Authority shows that Redmond had 5,039.6 cases per 100,000 people as of April 7, compared to the southern ZIP code in Bend that had 4,233.3 cases per 100,000.

Data scientists use the number of cases per 100,000 residents in any size ZIP code to make that rate comparable with other ZIP codes.

By comparison, the ZIP code data show a rate of 18,309.5 cases per 100,000 for the Warm Springs area where some of the members of the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs live. The ZIP code area for the Sunriver area shows a rate of 186.6 per 100,000 people.

In the past couple weeks, there has been a growth in cases from spring break travel and social gatherings, said Carissa Heinige, Deschutes County Health Services Case Investigation Branch director. Cases are stemming from barbecues where people aren’t wearing masks or maintaining 6 feet of distance, Heinige said.

“The best thing our community can do to prevent cases is to sign up for a COVID-19 vaccine,” Heinige said in an email. “Outdoor events are less risky, but we encourage people to remain diligent about wearing a mask and distancing.”

The one large unknown that’s looming is how prevalent variants are in the community, Johnson said. The next four to six weeks could provide more information. St. Charles Bend, which cares for the region’s COVID-19 cases, has been seeing lower numbers of hospitalizations despite more people testing positive for COVID-19, he said.

“I’m hesitant to say how bad it could be,” Johnson said. “It won’t be as bad as it was in mid-December, when we were in our peak. The models say that we could reach half as much as that. The hospital could see a daily census as much as 30.

“It’s hard to say.”

On Monday, all Oregonians 16 and older are eligible to sign up for a vaccine. Deschutes County Health Services is recommending that residents pre-register by going online to www.centraloregoncovidvaccine.com.

The Deschutes County Health Services and the Oregon Health Authority will offer a free drive-thru COVID-19 testing to anyone from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m. on Wednesday at the Bend at Bend-La Pine Schools Education Center, 520 NW Wall St.

Testing is available to anyone with or without symptoms. No identification is required to be tested. Participants are asked to wear a mask and register online at doineedacovid19test.com. Staff will be onsite to register those unable to preregister.