The deadline for Gov. Kate Brown’s vaccination mandates for health care workers, K-12 school employees and some state workers arrives Monday, and while it’s clear some service disruptions are expected, the state may well avoid mass terminations that will hobble hospitals, classrooms and government agencies.

Across the board, many of the professions staring down the deadline have reported comparatively high vaccination rates among workers. Some schools and hospitals say more than 90% of workers are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 compared to just 71% of all Oregon adults.

Brown announced the vaccination mandates in August, saying required inoculations would help protect students, preserve health care capacity, ensure state workplaces are safe and reduce the delta surge. Workers who refuse to be vaccinated may now lose their jobs, and some have already been placed on leave.

But with just days remaining before Monday’s deadline, neither Brown’s office nor the Oregon Health Authority could say exactly how many workers are subject to the mandates. Nor could they say how many are not fully vaccinated or have failed to obtain medical or religious exemptions to the requirement.

In other words, no one knows precisely how many public and private workers might be told to stay home come Tuesday. But it appears that at least 200,000 workers are subject to the mandate, and thousands of workers are expected to face ramifications, up to possible termination, if they fail to comply.

And that could impact the lives of far more Oregonians, from rescheduled medical appointments to canceled school bus routes to how many workers are watching vulnerable patients in long-term care facilities or guarding the state’s 13 prisons.

“It’s gonna be real. We’ll have some workplace turnover as a result of it,” said Josh Lehner, an economist with the state Office of Economic Analysis. “But it’s going to depend on how spread out the impact is. Even if it’s not a big disruption for the top line economic data, it could be a massive disruption for individual employers.”

Already some deadlines have shifted, with unions for government employees negotiating extensions to Brown’s mandate. Only about 5,000 of 43,000 executive branch workers are now required to be fully vaccinated by Monday, with the remainder scoring a delay until Nov. 30.

The state’s prison system faces perhaps the biggest standoff over the mandate, with only about 85% of employees fully vaccinated or given exceptions, below the 90% average among all executive branch workers. The agency’s director has made clear she plans to put workers on leave beginning Tuesday, despite concerns over safety and security, saying it is her duty to uphold Brown’s mandate.

Across the state, objections to the vaccine requirement have percolated for months. At least 10 lawsuits have been filed, although none have scored victories. And a handful of counties have declared local emergencies warning of staffing fallout.