COVID-19 risk levels in Oregon rise, reversing recent trend

Published 3:00 pm Monday, December 6, 2021

New COVID-19 infection risk levels rose in Oregon according to the latest report from the County COVID-19 Community Transmission report, released Monday.

The Oregon Health Authority report showed the statewide rate of new infections per 100,000 residents rising to 152.6 from 96.6 in last week’s report.

The positive test rate rose slightly to 5.9% of tests, up from 5.6%. Oregon health officials have said a 5% rate or below means the virus spread isn’t prone to a spike in new cases.

The reports do not include any impact of the new omicron variant, which has not been officially reported in Oregon as of Monday afternoon.

OHA’s daily COVID-19 report stated 7,000 delayed laboratory reports from Nov. 1 to Nov. 30 were received on Dec. 3.

“As a result, test counts and case counts are higher than anticipated for Dec. 3,” the statement said.

OHA did not address how many of the reports were for positive tests. Based on the statewide positivity rate, it would be about 400. How the data was spread across the month was not addressed.

Each weekly report comes with the caveat that “all data are provisional and subject to change.”

The increase was driven in large part by reversals in the trend of dropping numbers in the Portland area including Multnomah, Washington and Clackamas counties.

Other counties with large populations — Lane (including Eugene), Marion (including Salem) and Jackson (Medford) — showed rising per-capita rates.

Central Oregon also saw cases and rates rising.

Deschutes County rose to 274.6 per 100,000 people from 200.5 last week, though its positive test rate actually fell from 10.4% to 8.4%.

Jefferson County’s rate more than doubled to 264.5 per capita, up from 120.3 a week before. Its positive test rate rose to 8.1% from 7.3%.

Crook County saw a jump of 118 reported cases, up from 43 the week prior. For smaller counties, the case count is considered a more accurate measure than per capita. The positive test rate in the county was up to 10.9% from 7.9% in the previous report.

Umatilla County rose to 69.9%, up from 50.3% the week before. It’s test positivity rate rose to 4.7% from 4.5%, but remains under the 5% OHA target for controlling the spread of infection.

As has been the case throughout the pandemic, the rates in the less populous counties in Eastern Oregon have been more scattered and volatile. The new report shows declining rates in some, including Baker and Wallowa. But rates were up in some, including Morrow and Union.

In northwest Oregon, rates were down in Clatsop, while neighboring Columbia and Tillamook were up.

The county risk levels were used until June to decide what level of restrictions to activities and gatherings would be placed on counties due to their measurements of infection and likely continued contagion. A large county above 200 cases per 100,000 would have once been placed in the “extreme” risk level, the most restrictive of four tiers.

Gov. Kate Brown and the Oregon Health Authority phased out the risk level system in late June when the state closed in on a 70% vaccination rate. When the delta variant sent risk levels to new record highs, the state did not reinstate the restrictions, saying it was up to local authorities to make decisions.

Though no longer linked to restrictions, the state has continued to issue the weekly risk reports. The significantly lower levels statewide in last week’s report were driven in large part by several counties with large populations reporting very low numbers that in turn pulled down the state average.

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