Omicron variant

A new omicron variant of COVID-19 is driving a rise in infections, but is not expected to be a significantly severe wave of the now 110-week pandemic in Oregon, state health officials said this week.

The BA.2 subvariant of omicron spreads up to 80% faster than during the first omicron wave. It has swept across the United States over the past month, leading to a swell of infections and hospitalizations.

It’s now the overwhelming source of new infections in Oregon, according to the latest data from the Oregon Health Authority released Friday.

The sheer speed and spread of BA.2 will cause what is by most accounts the seventh wave of new infections since COVID-19 appeared in Oregon on Feb. 28, 2020, two months after it was first found in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019.

COVID-19 cases rose for the week ending April 3, breaking a streak of nine consecutive weeks of falling cases and hospitalizations. OHA reported 1,988 new positive cases, up 42% from the previous week.

Oregon officials underlined that nearly all the severe cases requiring hospitalization and those who die from COVID-19 are not vaccinated.

While breakthrough cases in vaccinated people accounted for more than 4 in 10 new cases in the most recent week, those people also make up 68% of the Oregon population.

If infected, a vaccinated person has a less than 5% chance of severe illness and less than half of 1% chance of death. The average age of a vaccinated person who dies from COVID-19 is currently 80.

For the past week, deaths were up and rising. A forecast from Oregon Health & Science University, released Friday, said there were 140 COVID-19 deaths in the most recent week, up from 99 the previous week.

“While the decline is still evident, the level of deaths per day are proving to be closer to the numbers seen during the delta wave,” OHSU reported.

Hospitalizations in Oregon fell to 95 in Oregon on Friday, the lowest level since prior to the deadly delta variant wave last summer.

OHSU says it now expects the daily count to peak at 220 patients per day on June 10. That’s fewer than the 300 forecast two weeks ago — but with a top date a month later.

OHSU said the projection was based on patterns seen in states where BA.2 took hold earlier. Several states in the Northeast have seen increases in cases. Only Vermont is seeing an increase in hospitalizations.

In comparison, a peak of 1,178 people with COVID-19 cases were in hospitals in Oregon on Sept. 1, 2021, the peak of the delta wave. September 2021 totaled 610 deaths, the highest monthly total of the 7,296 deaths so far in Oregon.

A sign that more infections can be expected was the rise in the percentage of tests that came back positive. OHSU said test positivity had dropped to 2.5% for the week ending March 19. The rate is expected to rise to 3.4% by mid-April.

During the height of the original omicron spike, when tests were more often at medical and public health facilities, positive test rates hit above 25% statewide in January.

However, COVID-19 test reports have fallen precipitously since the beginning of the year.

The falling totals are due at least in part to the increased availability of free rapid tests sent by the federal government to any resident who signed up online.

The CDC has reported people are unlikely to report negative tests and less likely to report positive tests unless they develop symptoms.