From the moment he met C.J. Stroud, John Beck believed Stroud could thrive in the NFL. Stroud trained for the 2023 NFL draft at 3DQB, where Beck works as a coach. He saw in Stroud advanced quarterbacking intellect and an ability to summon his best performance at pivotal moments. But Beck had coached many quarterbacks as they prepared for the draft, and he understood success on draft night brought inherent risk. When the Houston Texans selected Stroud with the second pick, Beck still believed in the young quarterback but worried about his surroundings.

“Whenever I see a quarterback picked that high, you wonder, what is the situation that he’s going into?” Beck said. “Sometimes it hurts these talented quarterbacks where they land, and it’s not the best situation for their development.”

It is impossible to determine where the line lies between Stroud’s innate excellence and Houston’s shrewd incubation. It has taken both to create this NFL season’s breakout success — and a case study for teams racing to the bottom of the standings. As Stroud carries a woebegone franchise into a new era, teams sinking into position to draft a celebrated QB prospect next April will try to glean lessons from Houston’s franchise-shifting selection and development of Stroud.

“Everyone is going to self-study this thing in the offseason,” Senior Bowl executive director Jim Nagy said.

Stroud is the overwhelming favorite for offensive rookie of the year, a status he cemented Nov. 5 in a 39-37 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He passed for 470 yards, a rookie record, and five touchdowns, the last of which he conjured out of astounding throws after starting a drive at his own 25 with 46 seconds left in the fourth quarter.

“What I saw in that last drive was just calm,” coach DeMeco Ryans said. “Everybody had this quiet confidence within them that they knew we were going to go down and score. It starts with having faith in your quarterback.”

Stroud continued his strong performance on Sunday. He threw for 356 yards in a road game at Cincinnati and led the team on a late fourth-quarter field goal drive to clinch a 30-27 victory against a Bengals team that could also be fighting for a wild card spot.

Stroud is not just the NFL’s best rookie. He has been one of the NFL’s most prolific quarterbacks, period. Through Nov. 5 he was third in yards per game (283.8), first in interception percentage (0.4), seventh in touchdowns (14), third in yards per attempt (8.1) and fourth in quarterback rating (102.9).

Behind Stroud and first-year coach Ryans, the 5-4 Texans have their highest win total since 2019 and could challenge for a playoff spot.

Stroud is responsible for his own success, of course. But plenty of franchises have chosen the wrong quarterback, and plenty more have failed smart, talented quarterbacks. In Carolina, top pick Bryce Young has looked small (as expected) and indecisive (a surprise). But he has also played behind a spotty offensive line and without a dynamic wideout he can trust.

In finding a franchise QB, the Texans nailed the most important task an NFL team faces. In advance of the draft, Stroud was viewed as a top quarterback but not a slam-dunk choice at No. 2. Recent Ohio State quarterbacks had a spotty NFL record. He reportedly scored poorly on the S2 cognition test, an emerging metric some NFL teams view as telling for quarterbacks.

“Hats off to the Houston Texans for sticking to what they saw on tape and sticking to what they heard from the people around C.J.,” Beck said.

When the Texans studied Stroud, they did not fall prey to stereotypes about quarterbacks who played at Ohio State. They saw a quarterback who had more responsibility than previous OSU passers Justin Fields and Dwayne Haskins. Stroud’s natural throwing ability stood out.

“Accuracy’s something you either have or you don’t, and C.J. has it,” Ryans said. “You can try to coach it, but it has to be that natural, right throwing ability.”

In Houston, Stroud found infrastructure that could support a rookie quarterback. Ryans hired Bobby Slowik and Jerrod Johnson as his offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, two up-and-coming coaches with different backgrounds who were both suited to work with Stroud.

Slowik came from San Francisco, where he helped prepare game plans for Nick Mullens, whom injuries thrust into the lineup as a rookie. Slowik saw an example of how a highly drafted quarterback could go wrong after the 49ers drafted Trey Lance third and watched him struggle until they traded him to Dallas in August for a mid-round pick.

Johnson played quarterback at Texas A&M in the late 2000s and bounced around the NFL in low-level assistant positions. He could relate to Stroud and help him translate college concepts into the NFL.

“C.J. has built that trust that we can put a little bit more on him,” Ryans said. “He’s still a rookie, still has things to learn and things to grow from each and every week. But he’s doing a really good job of growing throughout the year.”

“I don’t ever try to do too much with it,” Stroud said. “I’ve been playing football for a really long time. Even though I’m a rookie and I’m still young in this league, I can feel the game out a little bit.”

Though the Texans won seven games over the past two seasons while firing two coaches, General Manager Nick Caserio had quietly been building a solid roster with an emphasis on attitude. “A lot of teams give it lip service but don’t put their money where their mouth is,” Nagy said. “They have really stuck to their guns the last two drafts and taken really high-character football guys.”