Federal agency sees growth for solar and oil production

Published 8:30 am Wednesday, December 13, 2023

The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted on Tuesday that 2024 will be a landmark year for wind and solar power, but also a record-setting year for U.S. oil exports.

As West Coast states step up their fight against fossil fuels, the EIA released an outlook that suggests the U.S. as a whole is pursuing an all-of-the-above energy strategy. The EIA predicted U.S. net exports of crude oil and petroleum products will be almost 2 million barrels a day, a record, and, for the first time, wind and solar power combined will pass coal as a source of electricity.

“Renewables, particularly solar photovoltaics, are growing rapidly and making large contributions to electricity generation,” EIA Administrator Joseph DeCarolis said in a statement.

Natural gas and nuclear power, in that order, will continue to be the top generators of electricity. U.S. energy-related greenhouse gases declined by 3% in 2023 and will fall another 1% next year due to lower coal consumption, the EIA projected.

Solar capacity will grow by 15% this year and is expected to increase by 39% next year. Renewable energy, including hydropower, will make up 24% of the country’s electricity, according to the EIA.

Washington, Oregon and California have adopted climate laws to phase-out fossil fuels by mid-century. In the short term, at least, EIA foresees U.S. fossil fuel production increasing.

Oil production will rise to 13.11 million barrels a day, up from 12.93 million barrels this year, the EIA predicted. Most of the increased oil production will go to refineries overseas, according to the EIA.

U.S. coal exports increased by 17% in 2023, offsetting declining domestic consumption, the EIA reported.

Natural gas-generated electricity grew by 7% this year. The EIA predicted growth next year will slow to 1% as more solar power comes on line. The U.S., however, is expected to export more liquified natural gas.

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