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Monday’s national championship matchup between Washington and Michigan is indicative of a shift in the college football landscape.

Either the Huskies or Wolverines will win their first title since the 1990s. The past four championships and six of the last nine were won by SEC teams — the last Big Ten team to win it all was 2014 Ohio State while 2004 USC was the Pac-12’s last champion.

This is also the end of the Pac-12 as we know it: Eight months from now, Washington and Michigan will meet again in Seattle in Big Ten conference play. Realignment has further consolidated the sport’s powerhouse programs into two conferences as Texas, the Huskies’ CFP semifinal opponent, is headed to the SEC.

Blowouts have become somewhat commonplace in the four-team era of the College Football Playoff. Georgia infamously routed TCU 65–7 in the national championship a year ago and Michigan and Washington both lost by multiple scores in past CFP appearances. But this season’s semifinal games — similarly to the 2022 slate — came down to the wire. No. 1 Michigan held on to beat No. 4 Alabama 27–20 in overtime and No. 2 Washington’s 37–31 win over No. 3 Texas came down to the final play of regulation.

The oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook are anticipating another tight game with the title on the line as the Wolverines have been installed as 4.5-point favorites against the Huskies in a clash of unbeaten teams.

National Championship Odds: No. 2 Washington vs. No. 1 Michigan

Spread: Washington +4.5 (-110) | Michigan -4.5 (-110)

Moneyline: WASH (+150) | MICH (-200)

Total: 55.5 – Over (-118) | Under (-110)

Game Info: Monday, Jan. 8 | 7345 p.m. ET | ESPN

Location: NRG Stadium | Houston, TX

Washington vs. Michigan Best Bet: 

• Washington +4.5 (-110)

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Of Washington’s 14 wins, eight have been by one possession, including its last five games. Its six-point victory over the Longhorns was actually its largest margin of victory since a 35–28 win against Utah on Nov. 11. The Huskies’ offense, led by Heisman Trophy runner-up Michael Penix Jr., averages the 10th most points per game in the FBS (37.6). Conversely, their defense ranks 53rd (24.1 ppg), which sets up shootouts like the semifinal and Pac-12 title game, a 34–31 win over Oregon.

Penix’s 4,648 passing yards are the most in DI and he added to that tally with 430 yards through the air against Texas. Penix and Rome Odunze linked up six times for 125 yards last time out and Ja’Lynn Polk caught five balls for 122 yards and a score, including a 77-yard bomb. Odunze ranks second nationally in receiving with 1,553 yards on the year and Polk is 18th with 1,122.

For as pass-centric as UW’s offense is, running back Dillon Johnson is an important cog in the machine. He was limited to 49 yards on 21 carries by the Longhorns, his lowest total since late October, yet he still punched in the team’s first two scores from one and two yards out. Johnson, who has 1,162 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground this season, injured his leg late in the semifinal game, but coach Kalen DeBoer expects him to suit up Monday against Michigan’s stifling run defense.

The Wolverines’ elite defense showed up in a big way against ’Bama. They held Jalen Milroe to 116 passing yards, sacked him six times, forced a fumble and stuffed him on the goal line in overtime. Michigan allows an FBS-low 9.5 points per game and has only surrendered 20-plus points three times all season to the Tide, Ohio State and Maryland.

After a near-interception on the first play of the game, Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy slowly settled in. He finished with 227 passing yards and three touchdowns, including one to Roman Wilson on a surgical game-tying drive late in the fourth. McCarthy and Wilson, who leads the team with 735 receiving yards, connected four times for 73 yards against a stout Alabama secondary.

Michigan also fed running back Blake Corum 21 touches, which he turned into two scores and over 100 total yards. The highlight of the game was his rumbling 17-yard touchdown in overtime that ended up being the decisive score — it was also his 25th rushing touchdowns of the season. Between Corum and Wilson, the Wolverines have two bonafide playmakers on their offense, which ranks 14th in scoring average (36 ppg).

Where Washington has been vulnerable all year is through the air, which Quinn Ewers displayed with his 318 passing yards on Monday. The Huskies are traditionally stronger against the run, but the Longhorns did rack up 180 rushing yards and three scores with a balanced ground game.

It’s worth noting the many special teams mistakes Michigan made in the semifinal. There was a muffed punt, a botched snap on an extra point attempt and a missed field goal. And the game was almost lost on a fumbled punt that the Wolverines were lucky to recover on the one-yard line and mercifully advance to overtime.

Washington and Michigan Betting Trends and Stats

Michigan has been the marginally more consistent team to bet on this season with an 8–5–1 record against the spread, compared with Washington’s 7–6–1 mark. With coach Jim Harbaugh at the helm, though, the Wolverines are 6–1–1 as he served separate three-game suspensions during which the team went just 2–4 against the spread.

As an underdog the Huskies are 3–0, having pulled off the upset each time in that position. This is also UW’s largest underdog spot of the season. Bet on Penix to keep things close against the Wolverines, especially if Johnson is active and forces Michigan to respect the run.

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