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The Denver Nuggets are going for their sixth straight win over the Golden State Warriors on Thursday in San Francisco. The defending NBA champions are road favorites against a Golden State team that’s still dealing with Draymond Green’s suspension.

Denver (24–11) has won eight of its last 10 games, including a 111–93 blowout against Charlotte at home Monday night. The Warriors (16–17) put an end to their three-game losing streak Tuesday with a 121–115 win over Orlando and are 6–4 over that same stretch. Thursday’s game against the Nuggets is the fourth leg of a seven-game home stand.

These two teams have already played twice this season, both times in the Mile High City. The Nuggets won 108–105 in early November behind a Nikola Jokić 35-point double-double and 120–114 on Christmas Day thanks to Jamal Murray’s game-high 28 points. The last time Golden State defeated Denver in the regular season was March 2022, one month prior to their first-round playoff matchup, which the Warriors won 4–1 en route to the title.

Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Odds

Spread: Nuggets -2.5 (-118) | Warriors +2.5 (-110)

Moneyline: DEN (-152) | GSW (+120)

Total: 235.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-118)

Game Info: Thursday, Jan. 4 | 10 p.m. ET | TNT

Nuggets vs. Warriors Best Bet: 

Under 235.5 (-118)

Nuggets vs. Warriors Bold Prediction: 

Nikola Jokić Records a Triple-Double

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Jokić had an uncharacteristically quiet performance earlier this week against Charlotte, finishing with just 13 points. Murray led the team with 25, Michael Porter Jr. added 22 and a 40-point fourth quarter allowed the Nuggets to pull away for good from the Hornets. That concluded a four-game homestand for Denver, which now hits the road again having won its last five outside of Colorado. The competition during that stretch is admittedly questionable: Atlanta, Chicago, Toronto, Brooklyn and Charlotte — all teams below .500.

The Nuggets’ 10–8 road record is respectable — only 13 teams have winning records in away games — but their 7–11 mark against the spread in that scenario is tied for the second-worst in the NBA. Golden State actually has identical straight up and against the spread records at home: 10–8 at the Chase Center and 7–11 against the spread. As a home underdog, though, the Warriors are 2–1.

Stephen Curry finished with 36 to lead the Dubs past the Magic two days ago and put an end to the team’s brief skid. None of his teammates finished with 20-plus points, though six were in double figures, led by Jonathan Kuminga’s 19. Golden State is roughly middle of the pack in offensive rating (14th) and slightly worse in defensive rating (19th), whereas Denver ranks eighth by both metrics.

Given the Nuggets’ struggles to cover the number on the road, the optimal play here is the under. Denver games hit the under more than 60% of the time (22–13), which leads the league. And though overs are more common for the Warriors (19–14), the Nuggets will be able to dictate the pace of play and they certainly take their time as they rank 29th in pace. These teams combined for fewer than 235 points in the two previous meetings and the under hit in both.

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