AFC Championship Game Player Props: Chiefs vs. Ravens

Published 5:44 am Thursday, January 25, 2024

By Jennifer Piacenti

: Despite all the eyes on Travis Kelce this season, he hasn’t put up the kind of numbers we’re used to seeing from him.

The no.1 seed Baltimore Ravens will host the no. 3 seed Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday for the AFC championship. The game total is set at 44.5 and the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs are getting 3.5 points on the road.

There will be plenty of eyes on this game and we are betting both quarterbacks will play well under the bright lights. We’re also targeting a plus-money prop for a certain player that we don’t expect to reach new heights this weekend.

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Lamar Jackson over 64.5 rushing yards (-120)

Jackson obliterated the Texans’ run defense last week, burning them for 100 yards and two scores on the ground. This week, he gets a Chiefs team that allowed the 10th-most rushing yards to quarterbacks during the regular season and just allowed 72 yards to Josh Allen in the divisional round. In four career games vs. the Chiefs, Jackson has exceeded this prop three times. You know what to do.

Patrick Mahomes over 25.5 rushing yards (-110)

Mahomes had career-high rushing attempts (75) and rushing yards (389) for an average of over 24 yards per game this season. He exceeded this prop in nine of 16 regular-season games and also in the wild card round vs. Miami. Here’s how it will go: The Ravens will apply pressure, Mahomes will scramble, the Chiefs receivers won’t be open or paying attention, and Mahomes will make plays with his legs. The Ravens allowed the third-highest yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks during the regular season (5.14).

Despite all the eyes on Travis Kelce this season, he hasn’t put up the kind of numbers we’re used to seeing from him.

Jamie Germano/USA TODAY Network

Travis Kelce under 5.5 receptions (+116)

Travis Kelce is averaging exactly five catches per game across the last five games, and though he’s had six or more catches in 10 of 17 games played this season, he’s only done it in four of his last nine (postseason included). Kelce had a big game last weekend with two touchdowns and 75 yards vs. the Bills, but he did it on just five catches. The Ravens, who have allowed 4.7 catches per game this year to tight ends, will be sure to try to shut Kelce down, and if Mahomes needs to dump the ball off, he may find Noah Gray more often.

Now, please don’t tell the Swifites, so we can keep our plus-money odds.

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