SI:AM | The Factors That Will Decide the Conference Championship Games

Published 7:00 am Friday, January 26, 2024

Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. I can’t believe the Edmonton Oilers’ winning streak, which I wrote about last week, is still intact. (More on that below.)

In today’s SI:AM:

🏆 NFL conference championships

🤔 Where the Falcons’ hire leaves Belichick

🏌️♂️ A golf comeback a decade in the making

If you’re reading this on SI.com, click here to subscribe to receive SI:AM in your inbox every weekday.

Four teams remain

The road to the Super Bowl is nearing its conclusion, with just four teams left standing: the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens in the AFC, and the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers in the NFC. Let’s take a quick look at the biggest difference-makers in each of Sunday’s conference title games.

Chiefs at Ravens (3 p.m. ET on CBS)

Patrick Mahomes won the first road playoff game of his career last week. Can he win a second to return to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in six years?

But as much as this is a tantalizing matchup between Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, it’s also a showdown between two of the best defenses in the league. Baltimore had the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL this season. Kansas City was No. 2.

What makes this matchup intriguing is that both defenses are especially good against the pass. The Ravens were the stingiest defense in the league season by net yards per attempt (which also takes into account yardage lost on sacks) and had more sacks than any team in the league. Those sacks came from a variety of sources, too, with three players—Justin Madubuike, Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy—each logging at least nine. The story is the same for the Chiefs. They ranked third in net yards per attempt allowed and second in sacks. Chris Jones and George Karlaftis each had 10.5 sacks this season. Charles Omenihu, who was suspended six games for a domestic violence arrest, had seven sacks in 11 games.

So what does that all mean? It could lead to a game where Mahomes and Jackson are frequently pressured and forced to abandon the pocket. Both players excel when forced to improvise, and they’re the most fun to watch when they’re making things happen with their legs.

Lions at 49ers (6:30 p.m. ET on Fox)

The biggest question mark for the Niners is the availability of star receiver Deebo Samuel. He played only nine snaps in the win last weekend over the Packers after injuring his shoulder in the first quarter. Coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters Monday that Samuel did not have any fractures in his shoulder, but that his status for Sunday is still in doubt. The fact that the shoulder isn’t broken is a relief because he suffered a hairline fracture in the same shoulder earlier this season. Samuel did not practice on Wednesday but did practice on a limited basis yesterday.

The Niners were not the same team when Samuel was sidelined with the initial injury. He was hurt early in San Francisco’s game against the Cleveland Browns, playing just nine snaps. The Niners went on to lose that game and the next two (against the Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals) as Samuel sat out. They scored just 17 points in each of the three games, tied for their lowest offensive output of the season.

Even in the heavy rain, San Francisco’s offense was more or less fine last weekend against Green Bay. It put up 356 total yards, just shy of the 398.4 per game it averaged during the regular season. Part of the reason for that is the way Jauan Jennings stepped up in Samuel’s absence, catching five passes for 61 yards after tallying just 19 receptions in the regular season.

If Samuel is sidelined or even just limited by his injury, it would obviously be bad news for the 49ers. But that doesn’t mean the Detroit defense can breathe a sigh of relief. The Niners still have plenty of other dangerous weapons—Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, in particular. And the Lions’ defense is their weak point. They ranked 23rd in the league this season with 23.2 points allowed per game. That’s the second worst of any team that made the playoffs.

The best of Sports Illustrated

Matthew Hinton/USA TODAY Sports

The top five…

… things I saw last night:

5. A slick assist by Connor McDavid as the Oilers extend their winning streak to 15.

4. Cole Caufield’s nasty stick-handling on his goal against the Islanders.

3. Stephen Curry’s behind-the-back dribble to set up an alley-oop to Jonathan Kuminga.

2. One of the biggest baseball brawls I’ve ever seen. It happened in a game in Venezuela, and former major leaguer Yasiel Puig was right in the middle of it.

1. Jordan Pope’s buzzer beater to give Oregon State an enormous upset victory over No. 9 Arizona.

SIQ

On this day in 1960, a high school basketball player in West Virginia scored 135 points in a game, setting a record that still stands today. What was the player’s oddly appropriate name?

  • Fred Bucket
  • Danny Heater
  • William Swish
  • Carl Gunner

Yesterday’s SIQ: Jan. 25 was the 100th anniversary of the opening of the first Winter Olympics, which was hosted by what city?

  • Oslo
  • Saint Moritz, Switzerland
  • Lake Placid, N.Y.
  • Chamonix, France

Answer: Chamonix, France. The Winter Olympics were preceded by the Nordic Games, another international winter sports competition that was held eight times from 1901 to ’26, though only Nordic countries competed (Sweden, Finland, Norway, Iceland and Denmark). Participation in Chamonix was much more widespread, though. There were 16 countries represented: the United States, Canada and 14 from Europe.

The 1924 Winter Olympics weren’t officially designated as Olympic Games when they took place, though. They were initially known as International Winter Sports Week and later retroactively brought under the Olympic banner.

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