Elinor Wilson moved to Bend with her family in 2000 at age 4. The town’s population hovered slightly above 50,000. NorthWest Crossing was still forestland. Heavy traffic was rare, and Bend’s first roundabout had been built a year earlier.

Wilson left to attend college about 14 years later. When she finished her graduate degree and accepted a job at Realms High School in Bend, the city’s population was inching toward 100,000. Wilson struggled to find housing that she could afford in Bend and signed a lease for a rental in Redmond, about 15 miles away.

“You would think as someone who grew up in the community and works a job serving the community – that you would be able to afford to live in the community,” Wilson said. “That’s not the case, and that’s not the case for a lot of my co-workers, too.”

High rental costs and expensive real estate go hand-in-hand with a well-loved location where there’s not enough housing for all the people who want to live in it. It’s a problem Central Oregon has grappled with for decades.

Growth has been an ongoing theme of Bend’s storyline, one that long-time residents have heard ad nauseam.

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Population surges starting in the late 1990s appeared manageable and represented an upswing for the community: A thriving health system was quickly attracting healthcare providers to the area, more retail stores were opening, construction was booming and golf was the No. 1 draw for tourists. At the same time, there were emerging concerns around environmental challenges, infrastructure needs such as transportation and education, and a shift in industry from timber to tourism.

Bulletin archives capture this ongoing thread through hundreds of articles over the years. Growth-focused publications in 2000, 2002 and 2015 highlighted evolving approaches to mitigate concerns and the positive outcomes that come with an area’s growth. Government officials — from city to federal levels — identified potential solutions, Central Oregon committees worked to address environmental concerns, such as clean air, and a group of residents formed Your Community 2000 to plan the best way forward for the community.

Some of the solutions worked, while others faltered. Many of the same concerns that stretch back to the 1990s remain today and a few new ones have emerged, such as homelessness.

Recreation destination

Some problems can be fixed with similar solutions.

In 1998, hundreds of thousands of people were visiting the Deschutes National Forest each year. Eventually, forest officials required visitors to purchase recreation passes to generate more funding for trail maintenance, according to Bulletin news reports.

Now, over two decades later, about 5 million people visit the forest each year, said Kaitlyn Webb, a spokesperson for the forest service. In 2018, the visitor count was 3.1 million. In response to increasing visitors, officials introduced a new system in 2022 that requires day-use and overnight permits to visit some of the Central Cascades’ most popular wilderness attractions, such as the Broken Top and Crater Ditch trailheads.

Protecting forestland

Central Cascades wilderness permits required

“Increased visitation means that people are learning about and exploring public lands. Those experiences are key to developing a sense of stewardship and engagement in the future of public lands,” said Lisa Machnik, Deschutes National Forest staff officer. “Recreation on the Forest is also a backbone of the Central Oregon Economy with an estimated annual spending of $223 million, approximately $82 million of which is associated with trail-based recreation.”

Machnik added, “At the same time, the infrastructure currently available may not be sufficient to handle the increased use we anticipate in the coming years. Managing the associated impacts to natural resources can be a challenge. For example, increased use levels and expanding areas of use can negatively impact wildlife or change the visitor experience.”

Transportation troubles

While concerns about housing and transportation have lingered for decades, city officials have introduced incremental solutions — recognizing that typically there isn’t a single solution that can comprehensively resolve more complex issues in one city ordinance or policy.

“I think transit is one of the biggest opportunities to expand upon. I don’t know if we have room for 50,000 more drivers in Bend,” said Bend City Council member Ariel Mendez.

The costs of transportation

Bend’s transportation fee: Everything you need to know about the newest charge on your utility bill

Mendez hopes to expand transportation routes, including bike and pedestrian corridors, and offer stronger incentives for residents to choose public transit. He also wants to encourage the development of mixed-use neighborhoods, allowing residents to meet basic necessities, like grocery shopping, without needing to commute across town.

Housing costs

David Welton, a housing advocate in Bend, supports mixed-use neighborhoods that provide dense and affordable housing, too. But threading the needle between environmental concerns, zoning laws and local opposition can make introducing this type of housing solution an uphill battle.

For example, Oregon’s land use laws encourage cities to develop within their pre-existing boundaries. The goal is to discourage urban sprawl and safeguard neighboring forest lands and agriculture, Welton said. However, zoning laws can restrict the construction of specific types of housing, like duplexes or apartments, in residential areas, further constricting the housing supply.

Housing crisis

High housing costs and low availability are hallmarks of region’s housing shortage

Oregon’s 2019 law, HB2001, changed single-family zoning, which opened up duplex and apartment construction opportunities. Bend made some code changes and in 2021, was one of the first cities in the state to comply. Bend has taken steps to help address the housing crisis, like limiting short-term rentals.

Still, over 33% of residents in Central Oregon report spending more than one-third of their income on rent — an issue commonly referred to as being rent-burdened. One study found that a $100 increase in rent is “associated with a 9% increase in the rate of homelessness — even when controlling for other factors, like wages, unemployment and poverty,” according to a 2020 analysis from the U.S. Government Accountability Office.

Homelessness increased 169% from 2013 to 2023, according to Central Oregon’s annual homelessness count.

Bend’s cost of living

By a number of economic measures, Bend is prosperous.

Compared to other small cities in Oregon, Bend boasts the highest median household income and the lowest poverty rate. The city’s unemployment rate is low, and Deschutes County has ranked nationally for its high number of business startups.

“A lot of folks came here, loved it here, but there weren’t any jobs, so they created their own,” said Katy Brooks, Bend Chamber’s CEO and president. “I think that’s still the case. People start businesses and businesses grow and that creates ecosystems and those grow.”

She added, “People have also come here because of tourism and work from home.”

Tourists visiting Bend spend hundreds of millions of dollars each year, helping to fuel the expansion of a flourishing art scene and amenities such as new restaurants, bars and hotels.

But those workers who rely on tourism, like bartenders or raft guides, often don’t earn a living wage.

Residents earning less than a living wage may be forced to move or may find it challenging to participate fully in the local economy, which could result in economic stagnation, said Nicole Ramos, a regional economist for Central Oregon. As more residents relocate, businesses could have a harder time recruiting qualified workers.

As a teacher, Wilson is one of the many essential professionals who struggle to afford living in Bend. And while the city’s steady rising population has spurred economic growth, without proper management, it can also exacerbate housing shortages, overwhelm public services and widen income inequality.

“There are so many jobs that just don’t pay that well,” Wilson said. “I think it’s a little bit of a broken system.”

The Bulletin is launching a yearlong series about the impacts and solutions related to growth in Central Oregon.

We’ll compare how civic groups, government officials and local leaders addressed growth 20 to 25 years ago with a focus on four areas — environment, infrastructure, affordability/economics and housing. Bulletin reporters will examine the success of previous solutions, current approaches to growth issues and what other cities are doing to mitigate problems related to rapid increases in population, housing shortages, economic challenges and environmental impacts.