Since the fall of 2019, Bend-La Pine Schools has seen an 8.4% drop in enrollment. That’s more than 1,500 students who should have been attending classes in Central Oregon’s largest school district.

Where did they go?

Other Central Oregon school districts suffered enrollment declines during the pandemic, but have returned to what administrators would view as expected enrollment levels.

But in the Bend-La Pine school district, it appears many students have abandoned public education altogether, engaging in home-schooling alternatives or enrolling in private schools.

Across all four school districts overseen by the High Desert Education Service District, which includes Bend-La Pine Schools, homeschooling increased by nearly 200% since the 2019-20 school year.

More parents are sending younger students to private schools, where enrollment among elementary-school-age children living in the Bend-La Pine attendance area rose from 7% to 23% between 2019 and 2022, according to the American Community Survey.

Public school enrollment trending lower 

Researchers at Portland State University’s Population Research Center, while forecasting for Oregon school districts, have seen lower public school enrollment throughout the state.

A smaller pool of children, which is attributed to lower birth rates, and students leaving public school due to the pandemic have been the two biggest factors in enrollment decline, said Ethan Sharygin, the center’s director.

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Kindergarten class sizes in public schools across Oregon, including Bend-La Pine Schools, are smaller than they’ve been in 10 years and aren’t likely to increase soon due to declining birthrates, he said.

“This is one thing we’ve seen in a number of districts, that the population that disappeared during COVID, when the schools were closed, didn’t come back when the schools reopened, and that was kinda surprising,” said Sharygin.

Oregon Department of Education data shows the number of elementary schoolers had increased by 2023, though not to where they were before the pandemic.

Keeping high school students in school crucial

For Bend-La Pine Schools, keeping older students in school is also an issue.

For example, 6% of 10th grade students dropped out before 11th grade in fall 2023. According to the American Community Survey, there wasn’t a subsequent rise in high schoolers attending private schools to explain where they went, though home schooling is a possibility, said Sharygin.

Scott Maben, communications director for Bend-La Pine Schools, said the enrollment decline can be attributed to a lot of factors.

District officials have said class sizes can fluctuate from year to year, and two high schools reduced enrollment on purpose to make sure the new Caldera High School had enough students in its attendance area. A legislative change meant students at Oregon Youth Challenge are no longer part of the enrollment tally for Bend-La Pine Schools as of this year.

Even as Bend-La Pine Schools’ enrollment has dropped, the population in Bend and Deschutes County has grown.

The county’s estimated population grew 1.7% from 2022 to 2023, according to the population center, and was 212,141 as of the end of 2023.

Though more people are moving into Bend than are leaving, residents coming from the rest of Oregon tend to be older, Sharygin said.

“The whole county has grown really strongly, actually,” said Sharygin. “A lot of the communities outside of Bend but in Deschutes County have been growing really quickly.”

Home schooling has gone up

Home schooling has increased 189% for students who live within the Bend-La Pine Schools attendance area since the 2019-20 school year.

Allison Bohrer, who runs Commonplace Homeschool Cooperative in Sisters, said that she’s seen homeschooling grow in Sisters and throughout Central Oregon.

Bohrer said she feels that parents who were schooling at home through the pandemic may have decided to stick with it after finding it worked for them.

She began the cooperative because the home-school community was growing and she wanted a place for everyone to come together. It became an apparent need in the community, she said.

“Sisters is a small town, but it’s growing like crazy,” said Bohrer. “We’ve had such a large influx of young families and families with children, and thus quite a healthy group of families that home school, and there’s never been a group for them.”

The numbers across the region show growth.

Home-schoolers living within the Sisters School District have increased 115% from the 2019-20 school year to this year, according to data from the High Desert Education Service District.-

Home-schoolers living within the Culver School District increased by 59% from 2019-20 to this school year, while those living within the Jefferson County School District increased by 17%, according to data from the Jefferson County Education Service District.

Private school enrollment has increased

Private schools across Central Oregon have also seen student enrollments increase.

Julie Amberg, head of school at Cascades Academy in Bend, said the private school was able to resume in-person classes sooner than public schools during the pandemic, which increased enrollment. The school has also seen demand for its middle school program and doubled its capacity as a response.

“(Families are) seeking an environment where kids are more known and seen just because with only 100 students in the middle school, those personal relationships are a little bit closer,” she said.

Cascade Academy, which opened in 2003, increased enrollment 17% from the 2019-20 school year to this year.

The private school Seven Peaks School has increased enrollment 48% during the same time period.

Amberg said she has been seeing demand from parents increase over the years.

“One of the things about being a smaller school, is that we really think about community as a foundation, and when you’re small, you can build those community roots and that sense of belonging in a pretty unique way,” said Amberg.