Bud Light’s comeback hopes are about to get dashed in the beer aisle.

Major grocery chains are just starting an annual spring rite: reshuffling the alcohol aisle to give more space to top sellers. That reset means fewer feet of shelf space for Bud Light, which hasn’t fully recovered from a conservative-led backlash over its collaboration last year with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney.

In the first big shelf reset since Bud Light’s sales nosedived, Anheuser-Busch InBev NV is likely to lose valuable real estate where it can catch consumers’ attention in stores — as much as 15%, according to one estimate.

“Anheuser-Busch’s beers will lose a range of about 10% to 15% of their space nationally as resets start,” said Jesse Ferber, chief strategy officer at Columbia Distributing, which serves Central Oregon and works with major retailers including Walmart and Target. Ferber estimates that most of that will come out of Bud Light and Budweiser, based on conversations with national retailers and competing brewers.

The estimate, while early and informal, suggests the slide the brand has experienced for years could continue. Data from Circana, which tracks retail sales, shows the Mulvaney incident only helped accelerate the ascendancy of a competitor, Constellation Brands Inc.’s Modelo, to surpass Bud Light as the top-selling beer in the U.S. by dollar volume.

Ferber said Anheuser-Busch’s strong portfolio and deep pockets mean it isn’t likely to lose too much brand share. Given regional preferences for beers, some regions might see its brands lose only 5% to 6% of shelf space, while others could see numbers as high as 17% to 18%, he said. Final numbers won’t be known until May or June, he said.

The steep forecast losses align with what a major competitor said it expects to gain.

“We expect our core brands — Coors Light, Miller Lite and Coors Banquet — to grow shelf space by more than 10% in the largest U.S. grocery and convenience retailers this spring over last year,” said Molson Coors Brewing Co.’s president of U.S. sales, Brian Feiro. He called shelf space one of the main “leading indicators of retail success” for beer.

But grocery shelves aren’t the be-all, end-all. Bud Light is also sold widely at bars, restaurants and stadiums. And Anheuser-Busch has just had some major marketing wins, including Olympics and Ultimate Fighting Championship sponsorships, which may help convince retailers to hold space for it.