Redmond could be the first city in Central Oregon to have its request to expand its water supply rejected by the Oregon Water Resources Department. It may be a signal of tough choices to come on water for Bend and across the state.

Look at the numbers for Redmond.

The population served by the city’s water is 36,123.

That population is projected to grow to 56,810 in 2043.

The city is required by laws and state planning goals to provide reliable water to its residents.

The city is projected to have a demand for water in 2043 requiring it to have the ability to pump at a maximum rate of a touch under 50 cubic feet of water per second.

To get the city there, the city submitted an application asking the state water department to allow it to increase its maximum rate of pumping groundwater at certain wells to 5.12 cubic feet per second, with a cap of 1,828 acre feet annually. The city would also continue its efforts at water conservation.

The water resources department is likely to deny Redmond’s application.

“Groundwater for the proposed use is not over-appropriated; however, groundwater for the proposed use is not available within the capacity of the resource,” a state water department review reads. “Therefore, groundwater is not available for the proposed use.”

Redmond’s attorney replied in a letter on Thursday arguing that the department “added a criterion not authorized by statute or regulation” to “find that water is ‘not available within the capacity of the resource.’”

We aren’t going to get between lawyers and regulators on what the law enables the state to do. But we spoke with Redmond Mayor Ed Fitch. He wonders about Redmond’s future decades from now if the state denies the city’s water permit or even allows the city only a bit more.

What are residents supposed to think? What is a business located in Redmond or considering locating in Redmond to think? What is it going to mean for the state land near Redmond ripe for development?

Is the water just not there?

Good answers may be found at a water summit on May 16 from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. at Redmond City Hall. There will be local and state elected officials there, as well as representatives from Warm Springs and conservation groups. It’s going to be facilitated by Jim McCauley, the legislative director for the League of Oregon Cities.

Water in the Deschutes Basin is not unlimited. But Redmond needs a good answer for 2043.