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Published 9:00 pm Tuesday, August 13, 2024
- Rubin
Vice President Kamala Harris has hinted about her priorities should she win in November. Much depends on whether Democrats can hold the Senate — and if so, whether they are willing to modify the filibuster or dispense with it. (We will assume that if Harris wins, the House will go Democratic.) But even with a Senate narrowly held by Republicans, some business might still get done.
Let’s start with the tax bill. The Trump tax cuts are due to expire in 2025. If the Senate does nothing, the entire package will disappear. That gives Republicans some incentive to make a deal with a Democratic president. They will want to keep all of the cuts; Harris will undoubtedly want to do away with breaks for high-end earners. She would likely also look to bump up the corporate tax rate, which Republicans will swear would destroy the economy. In between the maximalist positions is where the bargaining gets done. If Democrats have the Senate majority and can pass a tax bill with zero Senate Republicans, she can get much more of what she wants.
But taxes are more than revenue. Tax changes drive policy shifts. Harris will also want to restore the child tax credit, a remarkably effective anti-poverty measure, and exempt tips for service workers from taxes. And here is the place she might also address child care, perhaps with a refundable credit to parents with modest earnings.
Next, Harris can try once more to pass the border bill that former president Donald Trump sank. If Democrats have the Senate but Republicans again decide to block the bill, strategically she might be wise to urge Democrats to modify the filibuster on this, a hugely popular bill that appeals to Republicans, rather than on an item from Democrats’ wish list.
Then there are the democracy issues — everything from ethics and term limits for the Supreme Court to statehood for D.C. to ending partisan gerrymandering to repairing/reinstituting Section 5 of the Civil Rights Act. If Republicans control the Senate, practically none of this, with the possible exception of ethics reform for Supreme Court justices, would be obtainable.
This is where the rubber meets the road on the filibuster. If the filibuster is still in place, Harris might offer a choice: Package A (ethics, term limits; renewal of the Civil Rights Act; eliminating gerrymandering) or, alternatively, tell Republicans she will urge Democrats to dump the filibuster and go for Package B (the whole laundry list of democracy matters plus campaign finance reform).
Although constitutional amendments are a long shot, Harris might try to get the ball rolling on reversal of the Supreme Court’s atrocious ruling granting wide immunity for the president. If the filibuster goes away or is modified sufficiently, a Roe v. Wade restoration bill together with other federal protection for IVF, contraception and same-sex marriage would certainly be on the table.
In addition to ethics reform for the Supreme Court, Harris could support a good government bill for all three branches. Biden never took up aggressive ethics reform, leaving the government wide open for abuse by a future president. Such legislation could include banning individual stock trades for all branches; for the executive branch, reforms could flesh out rules to implement the emoluments clause, put teeth into the Hatch Act, expand the powers and funding of inspectors general, and require all presidents and vice presidents to release their tax returns annually. Weeding out presidential “emergency powers” provisions scattered throughout the federal code would be another way to prevent future abuse of power.
And finally, the federal budget is all about priorities — e.g., more money for affordable housing and other measures to address homelessness, policing (to continue the Biden-Harris administration’s success in driving down crime to a near 50-year low) and green energy. The balance of power in the Senate will determine how much she can achieve.