New census data on Oregon migration is not game-changing. It is population-changing curious.

It was estimated that Oregon has more people going out than coming in. Oregon had about 131,000 people leave the state and 125,000 join it for 2023. (We should point out that we noticed this because of reporting by KOIN News in Portland.)

The numbers are an estimate and the deficit is just a few thousand people. But it might be significant, if it’s the start of a larger trend.

The state’s Office of Economic Analysis began about a year ago to alert legislators to a possible zero migration growth pattern for the state. Oregon has more deaths than births, so zero migration would cause population declines.

It could have various implications. The most common group who migrate are people in their 20s and 30s. If they are leaving or not coming, it means Oregon may have a smaller pool in the future of workers and people having children. The K-12 population of students would also drop. Demographically, Oregon may tilt further toward an older population.

A zero migration scenario doesn’t mean doom for Oregon’s economy.

“In terms of the overall impact of the Zero Migration scenario it is important to keep in mind that Oregon’s economy will not crater,” a state economist report says. “Rather, the state would experience slower increases than in the baseline.”

There could be some good things. It may mean fewer people on the roads or on the trails, fewer people needing social services or law enforcement response. Some Oregonians may be happy to see people go — or not come in the first place.

It may also mean there is less pressure on Oregon’s housing market. Don’t expect miracles there, though. The state is so far behind on meeting demand for housing that it will continue to be a problem, state economists say.

The fun thing to do is to speculate wildly about why this migration pattern may be changing for Oregon when the state has experienced recent decades of net growth. Housing costs surely scare some families off. Maybe smoke-laced summers don’t have an appeal. And we are sure there are partisan-rich reasons aplenty.

The migration numbers for Oregon doesn’t mean the state is in a population crisis. It doesn’t mean stagnation. It isn’t an Oregon exodus. It does reinforce the idea that Gov. Tina Kotek is right to focus so completely on housing.