Stocks and bitcoin jump after Trump’s victory. So do worries about inflation as Dow surges 1,300

Published 10:12 am Wednesday, November 6, 2024

NEW YORK — The U.S. stock market, Elon Musk’s Tesla, banks and bitcoin were all storming higher Wednesday as investors bet on what Donald Trump’s return to the White House will mean for the economy and world. Among the losers the market sees: solar-power companies and potentially anyone worried about higher inflation.

The S&P 500 was jumping by 2.2% in afternoon trading and on track to top its all-time high set last month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1,382 points, or 3.3%, as of 12:59 p.m. Eastern time, while the Nasdaq composite was 2.5% higher.

The U.S. stock market has historically tended to rise regardless of which party wins the White House, with Democrats scoring bigger average gains since 1945. But Republican control could mean big shifts in the winners and losers underneath the surface, and investors are adding to bets built earlier on what the higher tariffs, lower tax rates and lighter regulation that Trump favors will mean.

“The markets are scrambling to figure out what happens next, but for the time being, the market is pricing in a higher growth and higher inflation outlook,” said Peter Esho of Esho Capital.

Of course, how much change Trump will be able to effect will likely depend on whether his fellow Republicans win control of Congress, and that’s still to be determined. That could leave room for snaps back in some of Wednesday’s big knee-jerk movements.

Nevertheless, the market is cleaving between rather clear winners and losers following Trump’s dramatic win. Among them:

Bank stocks, up

Bank stocks led the market higher, in part on hopes that a stronger economy would mean more customers getting loans and paying them back with interest. They also rallied on hopes for lighter regulation from a Republican White House, which could spur more mergers and buyouts where investment banks could earn fees.

JPMorgan Chase rose 10.8%, and financial stocks in the S&P 500 had the biggest gain by far among the index’s 11 sectors.

Crypto, up

Trump has pledged to make the country “the crypto capital of the planet” and create a “strategic reserve” of bitcoin. The price of bitcoin hit an all-time high above $75,000, according to Coindesk, and was recently up 6.4% at roughly $74,670. Companies in the crypto industry also jumped, including trading platform Coinbase’s 26.5% leap.

Tesla, up

Musk has become a close ally of Trump, exhorting the former president’s run. While Trump may end up hurting the electric-vehicle industry broadly by limiting government subsidies, analysts say Tesla could gain somewhat of an advantage by already being such a big player in the industry. Tesla revved 14.1% higher, while rival Rivian Automotive fell 10.1%.A Trump-led Washington could push for tougher enforcement of the nation’s borders, which could mean more business for companies that work with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE. GEO Group, which runs ICE processing centers, jumped 38.4%.Smaller companies stock, upTrump’s America-First policies could help companies that focus on customers within the United States, rather than big multinationals who could be hurt by increased tariffs and protectionism. The Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks, which are seen as more domestically focused than the big stocks in the S&P 500, jumped 5.2%. That was more than double the S&P 500’s gain.

Treasury bond prices, down

Investors see Trump’s policies potentially leading to stronger economic growth, which helps push prices down for Treasurys and their yields up. Tax cuts under Trump could also further swell the U.S. government’s deficit, which would increase its borrowing needs and force yields even higher. The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped to 4.43% from 4.29% late Tuesday, which is a major move for the bond market. It’s up substantially from August, when it was below 4%.

Inflation worries, up

Investors also see Trump’s policies likely adding to future inflation, particularly tariffs, which can add costs to U.S. households’ bills.

“Trump keeps openly telling people that he will increase tariffs not just on China but with every trade partner,” said Andrzej Skiba, head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income at RBC Global Asset Management. “We’re talking 10% tariffs across all global partners. This is a big deal because this could add 1% to inflation. If you add 1% to next year’s inflation numbers, we should say bye to rate cuts.”

A drop-off in immigration could also push companies to raise wages for workers faster, which in turn could put more upward pressure on inflation.

Interest rates, muddled

Renewable energy stocks, down

Trump is a fan of fossil fuels, encouraging production of oil and natural gas.

His win sent solar stocks sharply lower, including a 10.4% fall for First Solar and 17% slide for Enphase Energy.

The only stock with a bigger loss in the S&P 500 was Super Micro Computer, which said its sales for the latest quarter could come in below its prior forecast. Its stock sank 23.1%.

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