On Nov. 7 Portland General Electric and the Confederated Tribes of Warm Spring, co-owners of the Pelton Round Butte hydroelectric project, issued a press release stating that record numbers of steelhead have already returned to the Pelton Trap below PRB and have been transported into the Upper Basin above Lake Billy Chinook with most of the return year still ahead. This press release has been covered in several media sources, including The Bulletin.

As usual, these stories lacked nuance and did not adequately explain what is happening. While the news is very good for supporters of the effort to reintroduce anadromous fish into the Upper Deschutes Basin, it is not quite as good as what has been reported.

The goal of the reintroduction program is to create naturally spawning populations of summer steelhead, spring chinook, and sockeye salmon.

Thus far that has not occurred for any of these anadromous fish. Currently, chinook and steelhead are raised in a hatchery and released above Lake Billy Chinook as smolts (2-year old fish ready to head to the ocean).

Unlike most hatchery fish, their adipose fin is not clipped prior to release so that anglers will not harvest them. Instead, a portion of their jaw (the left maxillary) is clipped so that they can be identified by fish managers when they return to the trap.

These fish are returning in record numbers. Unfortunately, of the 250+ adult steelhead returns to the Upper Basin, as of Oct. 25 only three are “natural origin” per PGE’s fish count data as published on its website. These are fish that were spawned in one of the tributaries by adult fish, most likely in the Crooked River or one of its tributaries.

The fact is that three natural origin fish is an extremely low number, nowhere near the reintroduction program’s target.

That being said, the current return is great news.

It’s a numbers game and the more adult steelhead that are moved into the Upper Basin, the higher the likelihood of them finding each other on spawning beds, and the higher the likelihood of them producing offspring.

Of course, this begs the question, why is this year’s return so much better than in the past? PGE/CTWS fish managers continue to make improvements in their practices, but the primary change is improved ocean conditions.

A slightly cooler ocean over the past two years means more available food, more oxygen, and less heat stress, which has led to increased anadromous fish returns this year throughout the Pacific Northwest.

Of course, returns are still very low compared to historical numbers and the other reasons for declining anadromous fish remain: dams, pollution, overfishing, loss of habitat, and the interaction between wild and hatchery fish.

It is also important to note that spring chinook returns this year remain extremely low.

Only 34 adults returned, an increase from 13 in 2023, and all of them were hatchery fish released in the Upper Basin as smolts. The most likely reason why steelhead returns are so much better is that steelhead swim far out into the ocean where ocean conditions saw the most improvement. Spring chinook stay closer to the coast where the ocean did not cool as much.

Will improved ocean conditions persist for an extended period? In the face of global warming that seems unlikely. This year, like most recent years, is the hottest on record.

Nevertheless, the current steelhead return is great news. If it leads to more naturally spawned fish in the Upper Basin steelhead might finally have the toehold they need to have something close to a natural lifecycle.

That natural lifecycle will never be complete, however, as long as the dams on the Deschutes and Columbia rivers stay in place.

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