Oregon Christmas tree prices have been soaring – but they may be near a peak

Published 7:20 am Sunday, December 1, 2024

Oregon’s Christmas tree farmers are anticipating another merry holiday this year, with prices on a decade-long upswing for one of the state’s major crops.

Farmers received an average of more than $37 per tree last year, according to the most recent survey from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. That figure includes wholesale prices and prices farmers charge at U-cut farms. Shoppers buying at tree lots or big box stores pay considerably more — an average of $75 per tree, according to the American Christmas Tree Association.

Wholesale prices have more than doubled since 2015 and they’re still climbing — though maybe not as fast as they have been in recent years.

“It’s been good for growers over the last five-plus years,” said Casey Grogan of Silver Bells Tree Farm, a 500-acre farm near Silverton. “We feel like maybe supply’s catching up and that prices might potentially level out some.”

Oregon provides roughly a third of the nation’s real Christmas trees, according to the state Department of Agriculture. The trees are the state’s 11th-largest crop by dollar value.

Prices are rising because the number of trees harvested each year is down by more than half over the past 15 years. A glut of Christmas trees around the time of the Great Recession chased many Oregon farmers out of the business, taking 30,000 acres out of production.

“There was a lot of consolidation in the industry. People just didn’t plant,” said Tom Norby, who owns Trout Creek Tree Farm in Corbett.

Farmers who remained in the field profited as the number of available trees fell sharply. Americans still wanted real Christmas trees, especially during the gloomy years around the pandemic.

“That’s kind of what Christmas trees represented,” Norby said, “is life in the middle of winter.”

Oregon farmers sold about $118 million worth of Christmas trees last year, the highest total on record, even though they sold 4 million fewer trees than they did in 2008. That reflects the higher prices.

There are signs the tree shortage may be coming to an end. Oregon farmers have planted an average of 5.8 million trees annually over the past four years. Not all of those trees will reach maturity but since farmers sold just over 3 million trees last year, the number of plantings suggests supply may catch up to — or perhaps exceed — demand over the next several years.

“There’s a lot of growers that are very nervous about an oversupply coming again, and maybe prices even coming down,” Norby said. That would be painful, he said, because the cost of fuel, fertilizer and labor keeps rising.

And then there’s the prospect of another trade war.

Many of Oregon’s trees are exported, especially to Canada and Mexico. President-elect Donald Trump threatened Monday to impose a 25% tariff on products made in those countries.

It stands to reason that those countries will impose reciprocal tariffs on goods made or grown in the United States, said Grogan, whose tree farm sells to customers in both Canada and Mexico. He said there’s a very good chance that customers in those countries won’t want to pay a premium for Oregon trees.

“So far,” Grogan said, “I don’t really like the writing on the wall.”