Crook County incomes growing fastest in state
Published 9:56 am Thursday, December 26, 2024
- In 2019, Aspen Ridge Electric employee Dean Jones puts together a door security system at the under-construction Facebook data center in Prineville.
Oregon household incomes have generally been growing in recent years – but they’re growing much more quickly in some parts of the state.
Newly released U.S. Census Bureau data shows that household incomes in Crook County soared by more than 80% during the five-year period ending in 2023, handily notching Oregon’s most rapid growth during that period. Statewide, incomes grew about 35% during that stretch — or 11%, after adjusting for inflation. (That’s a roughly 2% annual growth rate.)
The new numbers contain income estimates in many small communities, measuring data over five years. That can provide more accurate figures than estimates covering a small community in a single year.
Crook County, one of the state’s fastest-growing communities, appears to be on a sharp upward trajectory. The median household income in the central Oregon community jumped from about $45,000 in 2018 to nearly $82,000 last year, according to the five-year estimates.
The county had just 27,000 residents in 2023, but that’s up 9% from 2020, a period when Oregon’s overall population was roughly flat. The county’s workforce grew even faster, 12%, during a period when Oregon had very little growth in net employment.
So what’s going right in Crook County?
The county’s largest city is Prineville, which had been weathering years of economic deterioration as sawmills closed and Les Schwab Tire Centers moved its headquarters 30 miles down the road to Bend.
Les Schwab still has its main tire warehouse on the edge of town, though. And since 2009, Facebook and Apple have built several large data centers in Prineville.
But the county’s growth in population and income may owe more to what’s happening next door.
Nearby Bend has boomed in the years since the Great Recession, amplifying its role as an economic hub for central Oregon. Housing in Bend and surrounding Deschutes County, meanwhile, has grown increasingly expensive — too pricey for many people, some of whom appear to be fleeing to Prineville.
Nearly 800 people moved from Deschutes to Crook County in 2022 alone, according to data collected by Andrew Grimoldby, economist with the Oregon Employment Department. In that year, more Crook County residents worked in Bend and Redmond than worked in Prineville.
“I cannot with certainty say that it is because they can’t afford to live in Deschutes County, (but) it is a possibility,” Grimoldby said.
But commuters can’t fully explain Crook County’s income growth, according to Grimoldby. He said the county’s own economic and population growth must be part of the story.
“The proximity to Bend and Deschutes County is a factor,” he said, “but much like anything in economics, there is typically several things contributing to it.”
A few other small counties produced outsized income gains, too, including Lake County, which borders Deschutes County on the south. The census numbers suggest Lake’s income jumped 67% in five years, to $61,000.
But Jeff McAllister, another economist at the employment department, cautioned that a small sample size in the tiny county of just about 8,000 residents means that the income numbers aren’t as precise.
Incomes in Oregon’s largest counties — Multnomah, Washington and Clackamas — grew at roughly the statewide rate between 2018 and 2023, according to the new data.
Some communities fared less well.
Harney, Josephine and Malheur counties all had household income gains of less than 18% — far below the rate of inflation over five years. That means residents lost ground economically, in aggregate.
Again, all three are small counties, and that means the census numbers have a wider margin of error. And other barometers suggest those local economies may be better off than the topline income numbers suggest.
For example, McAllister notes that Josephine County’s workforce grew by almost 9% from 2020 to 2024, and the number of businesses operating in the county rose, too. Total wages paid to workers grew by 38% in the county, reflecting the growth in the workforce and higher paychecks, too.
Health care jobs appear to be a big part of the county’s growth, adding 530 jobs in just the last year. And the market value of agricultural products from Josephine County more than doubled in the five years ending in 2022, to $38.4 million. Farm income was up 23%.
“This paints a more colorful picture for Josephine County than one of industry decline,” McAllister said.
This is Oregon Insight, The Oregonian’s weekly look at the numbers behind the state’s economy. View past installments here.
— Mike Rogoway covers Oregon technology and the state economy. Reach him at mrogoway@oregonian.com.